Read on Twitter
Quick thoughts re. the push by Iran's parliamentarians to force the government to stop implementing other provisions of the nuclear deal (to include implementation of the AP and resumption of 20% enrichment):
The Guardian Council has ratified the bill with some modifications...
The Guardian Council has ratified the bill with some modifications...
The Council required the timeline for this to be extended from 1 month to 2 months after entry into force.
This means that when the clock starts ticking, the US and the remaining parties to the JCPOA will have 2 months to return to the deal before these steps. BUT...
This means that when the clock starts ticking, the US and the remaining parties to the JCPOA will have 2 months to return to the deal before these steps. BUT...
An important caveat is that the bill isn't super clear but all these steps aren't starting at once--much like Iran's 2019 announcement that it would take a number of steps to remove limits on its program imposed by the JCPOA.
The Council's approval with these modifications is significant and there's now more pressure on the Rouhani government to secure a US return to the JCPOA quickly.
It's also designed to raise the stakes of a quick re-entry by the US (though the bill only mentions P4+1).
It's also designed to raise the stakes of a quick re-entry by the US (though the bill only mentions P4+1).
Though Rouhani's people are objecting to the bill, they may not be as unhappy about it as they claim to be as this enables them to leverage this concrete deadline in any negotiations with the US vs the arbitrary timelines of Iranian politics.
Bottom line:
Does it completely close the window on JCPOA re-entry? No.
Does it mean the US should rush back in to avoid these timelines? Not necessarily. As always, there's room for flexibility and deadlines aren't always as firm as they appear.
Does it completely close the window on JCPOA re-entry? No.
Does it mean the US should rush back in to avoid these timelines? Not necessarily. As always, there's room for flexibility and deadlines aren't always as firm as they appear.
