Read on Twitter
India is a $2000 per capita income country. In order to become a decent PCI country, things have to change. There is no other choice. There are broadly 2 ways in which change happened in India post '90s.
1. Reforms
2. Technology
1/n
1. Reforms
2. Technology
1/n
2. In general there is zero to little opposition to technology based changes. It is amazing how quickly Indians adapt and adjust to technology based revolutionary changes. On the other had conventional reforms are fought tooth and nail. Even a slight reform brings massive opposn
3. Modi in his first term focused mainly on using technology to dramatically improve public services and reaped the rewards in 2019. After economy has started faltering in 2019 there is a shift towards conventional reforms. This is a much more difficult thing to pull off.
4. But one good thing about reforms is that they are all cumulative. Since 1991, there was no major roll back of any reform measure. Hence even if we do reforms sporadically, (i.e. only when there is a crisis) these things do add up. None of the privatized PSU is bought back
5. Similarly none of the sector which was opened up after 1991 is converted back to public sector monopoly.
That's why ride the current opposition to reforms. Things will settle down in next 2 years. The results will start to flow. GDP growth rate is the best answer to naysayers
That's why ride the current opposition to reforms. Things will settle down in next 2 years. The results will start to flow. GDP growth rate is the best answer to naysayers
6. I personally think that PLI schemes + tax cuts + infra build up + global mood etc will help us achieve what we consistently failed to pull off since 3 decades. Manufacturing.
All ducks are lined up. Once they start showing results, the momentum will build itself
All ducks are lined up. Once they start showing results, the momentum will build itself
7. Just like Indian IT was able to ride 3 different waves in last 30 years, Once the base is established for manufacturing, people will keep on adapting and improving. It is the only missing piece in India story.
8. National economy has 3 components. Agriculture, Industry & Services. We have one of the largest fertile land in the world. Even with our pathetic yields we already produce enough for feeding our people and also export ~$30 billion agricultural exports every year.
9. There is no major challenge for us in services. We have banks, IT, Insurance companies, Financial services, stock markets etc Everything that we need in services sector, we have them & we have the capability to build anything else if required.
10. This brings me to the final sector. Manufacturing. If we divide manufacturing into 2 parts, mass manufacturing and cutting edge stuff, we are punching above our weight class in cutting edge stuff and waaaay below our weight class in mass manufacturing.
11. We have competence in Space, Nuclear, missiles, super computers, SSBNs, ICBMs, Fighter jet etc Whenever the nation wanted something seriously and spent money on it, we were able to achieve it. When US stopped Russia from providing Cryogenic engine for ISRO, we struggled
12. But we went ahead and created one of the largest cryogenic upper stage in the world for GSLV mk III. Similarly when US blocked supercomputers, we built PARAM by our selves. Same with Nuclear & missile technologies. We have enough skilled manpower in say pharma sector.
13. The core of all the above tweets is that except mass manufacturing, we are reasonably good at everything else. The only thing that is missing in India puzzle is mass manufacturing. It is very important for us to fix this fundamental weakness.
14. We have now once in a generation opportunity to fix this problem. All the ducks are lined. If we fail this time, we might as well write off mass manufacturing sector and focus on other ways to get rich. But I am hopeful this time.
15. Our problem in the past was the we never really serious about mass manufacturing the way we were about some other fields. This time the Govt is serious, Infra is almost ready(Dedicate Freight corridors, warehouses),fuel prices (crude),interest rates (low) all are in our favor
