Read on Twitter
THREAD: On coming economic pain in the US before any stimulus is in the pipeline, there are four main sources /1
First, there is the consumer pullback. Retail will feel this because, at the margin, consumers will want to be conservative and stay away from in-person shopping where they can /2
Then there are the government mandates. "After infections plummeted in early June, [we had a re-opening]. But with new coronavirus cases surging... [governments] have closed some businesses and limited the capacity" https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/26/coronavirus-cases-cities/ /3
Third, there are job losses. Be prepared for an ugly initial claims number tomorrow and an ugly jobs number on Friday. Even if they are benign, we still have reason to worry going forward given the first two sources of pain. Lost jobs means lost consumption /4
And finally, there's government aid. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance is at stake in December. So is the eviction moratorium. So is the foreclosure moratorium. And remember, the White House ‘can’t guarantee’ the government will avert a December shutdown https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/11/18/white-house-congress-shutdown-december/ /5
The question is this:
How much permanent damage will be done to the US economy before we get to the other side of this viral wave and to the vaccines?
My take: based on the above, considerable.
Writeup here: https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/p/pre-inaugural-fiscal-relief-unlikely
/end
How much permanent damage will be done to the US economy before we get to the other side of this viral wave and to the vaccines?
My take: based on the above, considerable.
Writeup here: https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/p/pre-inaugural-fiscal-relief-unlikely
/end
