You can already see 2016 re-enacting itself in real time

REPUBLICAN 1: He won't get a free pass this time

REPUBLICAN 2: Damn straight. Ok, go attack him

REPUBLICAN 1: After you

REPUBLICAN 2: No, I insist

REPUBLICAN 1: What if I gave an anonymous quote instead https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1334132500784947200

If R's want the Trump Era to be remembered as bad in a 2024 primary, they're going to have to develop a story as to what was bad and why it was his fault. I still don't see any mechanism to make that happen so long as Trump is around and demanding constant loyalty tests.

Like go through the list in this Axios piece: He'll have political, legal, and financial troubles that hurt him in 2024.

All of this was true in 2016! And unlike 2016, there's now 4+ years of established narratives that almost all of the party have built up to excuse every one.

When the story for 4 years is :"Everyone who turns on Trump within the party is a deep state Never Trumper" you see the logical problem of any one person turning on Trump. You'd need heavy backup from most of the party.

The only saving grace for R's is that Trump losing to Biden pierces the veil of invincibility and makes him seem pathetic.

Okay, but everyone who might sell that line in 2024 is sitting around watching the story set in like cement among rank-and-file R's that he didn't lose!

It actually gets even worse than that for R's hoping to bring Trump down.

Let's say a critical mass of R voters are stuck in a bubble that makes it impossible to drag Trump down. Ok, you just have to show he's damaged outside that bubble.

But nobody trusts polls now!