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School attendance in England - as we move toward Christmas, what has happened since reopening in September? And what implications does this have for the government?
Here are some thoughts.
Here are some thoughts.
Context: usually school attendance is around 95%. In the last five years, the overall absence rate has been about 4% in primary schools and about 5-5.5% in secondary schools.
On 26 November, attendance was just 78% in secondary schools, and 88% in primary schools.
On 26 November, attendance was just 78% in secondary schools, and 88% in primary schools.
This chart shows schools have been badly affected by the second wave.
Attendance is much lower than normal.
The gap between primary and secondary schools is also much wider than normal - Covid infection rates are higher among older children (ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/26november2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19)
Attendance is much lower than normal.
The gap between primary and secondary schools is also much wider than normal - Covid infection rates are higher among older children (ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/26november2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19)
But national data hides regional and local variation. This data isn't published regularly, but we do have it for 15 October. This chart shows that areas with higher infection rates have lower school attendance. (chart from @EduPolicyInst report: https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/school-attendance-rates-across-the-uk-since-full-reopening-november/)
This is impacting disadvantaged pupils the most. As @FFTEduDatalab analysis shows, secondary school attendance seems to be lower in more disadvantaged areas. (source: https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/10/pupils-in-the-poorest-areas-of-the-country-are-missing-the-most-schooling)
Implications:
1) Government should continue to invest in technology to ensure all children can access remote learning. Despite investment, this remains a problem. This was a key recommendation in Performance Tracker 2020 from @instituteforgov and @CIPFA. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2020/schools
1) Government should continue to invest in technology to ensure all children can access remote learning. Despite investment, this remains a problem. This was a key recommendation in Performance Tracker 2020 from @instituteforgov and @CIPFA. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2020/schools
2) Ofqual and the DfE need to set out their plans for 2021 exams, especially how they plan to make them fair, taking into account pupils' differing experiences during the pandemic. Finding a way to address variations in lost school time is a major challenge.
3) Government should invest more money to help disadvantaged pupils, because they have been most affected by the disruption. The National Tutoring Programme has been extended by a year, but without any additional funding. Govt should consider additional funding for the programme.
Last point is particularly key because there is emerging evidence that remote education is relatively ineffective. A study from the Netherlands - where broadband access is very high - suggests that pupils' learning was adversely affected in the spring. https://voxeu.org/article/collateral-damage-children-s-education-during-lockdown
In summary: schools have been significantly disrupted for 9 months now. That means there are long-term challenges, as well as short-term ones. "The adverse effects of Covid-19 on pupilsâ education is likely to continue long after next year." (Natalie Perera, @EduPolicyInst)
