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Marvin Vettori has the 9th highest takedown defense rate (80.8%) in UFC Middleweight history.When we dig deeper into the context, his TDD numbers are far more impressive than "9th" makes them seem
(1/8)
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What this chart shows is how each of Vettori's opponents have done on takedowns against Vettori, and then in all of their other UFC fights combined
Those cells are formatted:
TD Landed / TD Attempted (Accuracy%)
(2/8)
Those cells are formatted:
TD Landed / TD Attempted (Accuracy%)
(2/8)
"vs Expectation" makes a really simple calculation to establish a baseline
"expectation" level is their non-Vettori accuracy times the number of attempts they had vs Vettori.
"vs Expectation" is the difference between that number and how many they *actually* landed
(3/8)
"expectation" level is their non-Vettori accuracy times the number of attempts they had vs Vettori.
"vs Expectation" is the difference between that number and how many they *actually* landed
(3/8)
So with a career accuracy rate of 60%, "expectation" on 5 attempts for Ferreira would be that he lands 3.0.
He landed 0 on the 5 attempts though, so 3 below expectation.
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He landed 0 on the 5 attempts though, so 3 below expectation.
(4/8)
This is a pretty rough estimate because we're dealing with small samples for some of these guys (63% from Miranda), but it does at least give us some context
Vettori has also faced plenty of fighters without small samples
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Vettori has also faced plenty of fighters without small samples
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Even if we *only* look at those big-sample wrestlers
3 oppoennts with TD accuracy >45% on at least 47 attempts
He held those three to 4/20 (20%)
(6/8)
3 oppoennts with TD accuracy >45% on at least 47 attempts
He held those three to 4/20 (20%)
(6/8)
Vettori's TDD not only ranks highly, but it's not inflated by high attempts from low-acc% opponents (eg. Woodley whose TDD record came almost exclusively vs Shields and Maia)
If anything, Vettori's competition would make it reasonable to excuse his TDD rate if it were low
(7/8)
If anything, Vettori's competition would make it reasonable to excuse his TDD rate if it were low
(7/8)
Basically — Marvin Vettori might have the most efficient defensive wrestling stats in the entire Middleweight division.
(8/8)
#UFCVegas16
(8/8)
#UFCVegas16
