The GOP is facing a weird choice now, and the problem will (probably) only get worse going forward.

They have no idea when it's safe to break with Trump, until he's in the ground of natural causes.

As a result, they're going to keep going down the nutjob chute.

Here's why. 1/n

The GOP has learned the hard way you can't win if evangelicals don't turn out for elections. Bush (1992), McCain, Romney all lost with lackluster white evangelical support.

Reagan, Bush (1988, 00, 04), Trump (16) won with it. 2/n

2020 is kind of an anomaly: evangelical support for Trump was still high, but it wasn't enough. Which is a terrifying thought for the GOP: it saved them down ballot but the President was just awful enough that he couldn't pull it off. 3/n

Trump is so beloved, and so believed by the base, that after he leaves office, he will still be in the role of kingmaker. If he tells his base not to support a Republican candidate, that individual is screwed. 4/n

Even if Trump only peels away a few points from the GOP nationally by convincing some of his base to stay home, that likely swings control of both the House and Senate.

The GOP is terrified that he'll linger, and leverage this long term. 5/n

Most GOP leaders would prefer that he lumber off into the sunset. They recognize that he's an embarrassment, and will likely become even more of one. They also will be in a position of having to appease him, lest he take his voters and go home. 6/n

Eventually, maybe this unending parade of unhinged spittle spraying anger turns off enough voters that we start seeing the beginnings of depolarization. Certainly the courts rolling back LGBT rights will cost them there. 7/n

Ditto voting rights, and civil rights.

I know the public doesn't care about policy and ideas anymore. The GOP didn't have a platform this year besides "We'll do whatever Trump wants." They care about image and feelings. 8/n

But... I can't imagine catering to Trump's ravings for another 4 years will be good for them as a party. While the base may remember the past four years fondly, most of us do not.

And if he goes downhill the way his father Fred did... 9/n

If Trump declares he's running again in 2024 on inauguration day 2021 as is being reported today, it will freeze most of the Republican party, and their potential candidates. If he loses the Primary, he will tear the temple down like Sampson. 10/n

Could he win in 2021? We discounted him in 2016, and he over performed the polls again in 2020. But, I'm actually pretty certain he will continue to be a hugely disruptive force within the GOP, especially if he causes them to lose the GA specials in Jan. 11/n