THREAD: #Iran’s parliament passed a bill on Tuesday to increase nuclear activities. Conservative MPs who drafted the bill argue that the only way to reduce sanctions & pressure is to impose costs on the other side where it hurts & where they worry about most.

Supporters say they do not consider the bill as a roadmap for #Iran to exit the #JCPOA, but define it as a leverage for possible future negotiations and securing sanctions relief. They have also named it as "Strategic Action for Lifting of Sanctions".

The assumption behind the bill passed in the parliament is that 'you have to do what you are not expected to, in order to change the established calculation by the other parties to the nuclear deal'.
#Iran #JCPOA

Rouhani administration and reformists oppose and criticize the bill, saying that the initiative by the conservative parliament, can bring together the new US administration, and parties to the 2015 #nuclear deal, and unite them against #Iran.

The convergence between the upcoming US administration and Europe seems inevitable regardless of the Iranian parliament's initiative. However the point is that this move might push China and Russia toward them.
#Iran #JCPOA

Conservatives argue, by maximum pressure, there's no more pressure left to be exerted on #Iran, even if US & 4+1 unite. Conversely, the administration & reformists bring up the "time" factor in the game. Meaning, the sooner Iran gets rid of sanctions, the better for the country.

The "time" factor tells us that in this unfolding debate, domestic politics might also take into account. Winning the credit for lifting sanctions or failing to do so, can make an impact for current administration & reformists in upcoming presidential election in #Iran.

The bill, ostensibly aimed at achieving better results, might make possible negotiations time-consuming & lengthen the process. The time when negotiations yield result - before or after the presidential election - matters, if it doesn't bring about the risk of killing a momentum.

Simply put, in the gap between January 20, 2021 and presidential election in #Iran mid-June 2021, any quick sanctions relief by US & Europe will benefit the current administration & reformists camp, unless they'll need to watch conservatives winning third branch of the government

The conservative bill leaves open the path for reviving #JCPOA & allows reversal of activities in case of 4+1 compliance. So if it does not lengthen the process, it might be able to expedite sanctions relief by putting the time pressure on the other side, benefiting Rouhani admin

P.s. The bill to increase nuclear activities was brought up much earlier in #Iran’s parliament. However the assassination of the nuclear scientist #Fakhrizadeh accelerated the process & paved the way for its ratification in the parliament.