BREXIT TELEGRAM

The final weeks of the UK. After 99 years, ended by Brexit.

Unacceptably long thread, to mark one month to B-Day. For anyone, UK or elsewhere, interested enough in Brexit to read to the end.
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One month to go. One crisis ahead. No info. /1.

With a month to go, no one knows what’s going to happen in the UK’s relationship to its nearest neighbour, the world’s second largest economy. Except that it’ll be bad.

The Rule of 6, 4, 2

6, 4 & 2. Remember those numbers. /2.

Under current government policy, the UK’s due to leave the second largest economy in the world: the EU Customs Union & Single Market. The terms on which it would do so are unclear. With 31 days to go.

If there’s“no deal”, on 1 Jan the UK will lurch into a crisis, .../3.

... reducing the present value of the UK economy by around 6%. [PV: total economic output due to be created over the coming years, with value creation further in the future subject to a discount compared to earlier years].

That’s if the country keeps going without .../4.

... failure of critical services, industries & infrastructure under the acute disruptions which may occur in a “no deal” scenario.

But there might be a “deal”. So perhaps all’s well.

Setting aside the extraordinary fact that we simply don’t know if there’ll be one, .../5.

... or what it’ll say, there’s another major problem. The UK-EU negotiations centre around options any of which would badly disrupt the UK economy & society, just not as severely as a “no deal”.

Based on what appears to be under discussion, a “deal” would reduce .../6.

... the PV of the UK economy by about 4%. And, similar to “no deal”, would also likely lead to acute disruptions which could spiral out of control, leading to much greater damage.

Covid Carnage and Brexit

6%, 4% - who cares? At least it’s not anything like the .../7.

... massive hit of Covid. Sure, any damage is bad. But if we can survive Covid, isn’t Brexit a walk in the park?

Remember: 6, 4, 2. The PV economic hit from Covid is likely to be 2%. The deep economic retrenchment of 2020 looks set to be temporary. The damage from Brexit .../8.

... is systemic & indefinite. If there’s a “deal”. Even worse if there’s “no deal”.

And impacts are additive. 6% + 2% makes a 8% reduction in PV.

Crisis Watch

The acute disruptions which realistically could occur include:

- trade across the English Channel. About .../9.

... 11,000 trucks per day (4 million per year) & several freight trains (2,000 per year) cross. This represents, in round figures, of the order of 20% by value of the UK’s global trade, about 40% of its global trade in goods & about 80% of its goods trade with the EU, .../10.

... much for critical & highly time sensitive sectors;
- medical supplies;
- food supplies;
- air services;
- transport links;
- police and related security cooperation against serious & violent crime, terrorism and customs fraud. /11.

Naturally, attempts are being made to reduce the likelihood of these & mitigate them if they happen. But it’s worth bearing in mind two points, one general, one a specific illustration:

(a) we’re in this situation. Just think about that statement. It’s beyond stunning; /12.

(b) truck parks, covering vast areas, for stacking thousands of trucks at a time, for unknown periods, are being built across the country, particularly in Kent, home to the Channel Tunnel crossing and Port of Dover. “Being built”. We’re just over four weeks away. /13.

Ireland and the Impossibility of Brexit

Ireland is central to this story. Bear with me, even if you’re familiar with the background.

The two large islands of Great Britain & Ireland are separated by the Irish Sea. Let’s rehearse some history. It’s important. /14.

And very badly understood in England. Not least in the Conservative Party, now showing many signs of being the English Nationalist Party, in all but name.

Great Britain: from 1536 Wales was a principality under English rule. In 1707 England entered into a Union .../15.

... with Scotland, forming the United Kingdom of Great Britain.

Ireland followed, in 1801, becoming part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Ireland. During the First World War & its aftermath, the Irish independence movement came into violent conflict with .../16.

... the UK government. Ireland achieved independence in 1922.

But part of the north of the island, the territory now officially known as Northern Ireland (current population 1.9 million), remained in the UK, which in turn became the .../17.

... United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland. This resulted from a Christian-religious (Catholic/ Protestant), cultural & socio-economic divide, with Ireland as a whole being strongly majority Catholic, supporting an independent, united Ireland & the counties of .../18.

... what became Northern Ireland being majority Protestant. The latter had entrenched economic & social positions distinguishing (often benefiting) them from the Catholic population & supported the Union./19.

Irish leaders conceded part of the island remaining in the UK, in the context of threat of violence (“terrible & immediate war”) from the UK government, & the parallel danger of violence from Unionists in the North.

In the 1960s demonstrations started in Northern Ireland,.../20.

... opposing discrimination against Catholics. In 1969 a three decades long terrorist campaign by republican paramilitaries started in NI, attempting to force the end of UK rule. Pro-UK paramilitaries also engaged in terrorist killing & UK government forces carried out a .../21.

... number of highly controversial, fatal operations. An average of around 120 people were shot dead or blown up each year, 1972 being the worst, with nearly 500 dead.

In 1998, with the UK & the Republic of Ireland integrated into the EU, after joining the EEC in 1973, .../22.

... the UK-Irish treaty, the Good Friday Agreement, was concluded. Its key provisions, which assumed the EU membership of both the UK & RoI, were designed to:
- ensure seamless economic, social & cultural life across the island of Ireland, with no border between NI & RoI;.../23.

...
- allow for NI to leave the UK (&, if so wished, unify with RoI) if a majority in NI supported that via a process of democratic consent set out in the treaty;
- end violence, with all paramilitary groups formally ending their campaigns & surrendering their weapons. /24.

It’s fundamental to an understanding of the UK’s relationship with the EU to be clear there’s no possible form of Brexit, except one, which credibly meets the legal & political intent of the Good Friday Agreement. It’s also important to note that the USA & the EU .../25.

...are guarantors of that treaty.

A Full Irish Brexit?

The Brexit which can be GFA compatible is one in which the UK stays in the EU Customs Union & Single Market. That means following all present & future EU rules, but having no say in them.

Any other Brexit .../26.

... requires a border on the island of Ireland, or between GB and NI - leaving NI effectively in the EU’s territory & separating it from the rest of the UK (without democratic consent in NI). The only two ways out of that, other than reversing Brexit, are either: .../27.

... (a) the UK repudiates & leaves the GFA treaty, with all the consequences which would flow;

(b) RoI leaves the EU & forms a customs union & single market with the UK.

The first of these would destabilise the whole of Ireland, would be illegal (there’s no exit clause .../28.

... from the GFA), and would bring unspecified, significant, retribution upon the UK from the USA. The second is a remarkable suggestion, which is put forward with apparent seriousness by English nationalist politicians. Let’s just say: political hell will freeze over first. /29.

Cakeism

The Johnson government has sought, as in so much, to keep its preferred cake in its larder, while eating it at the same time. To have its impossible Brexit, while not destroying Ireland & the UK, or the USA’s (& EU’s) relationship with the UK. /30.

Their technique is to separate NI from the UK & then pretend three untrue things are true. That:

1. NI hasn’t been separated from the UK;
2. despite the lack of democratic consent for the separation of NI from the UK (which the government, in making this argument, .../31.

... temporarily forgets it claims hasn’t happened) there is in fact such consent, because it will be permitted four years after the separation of NI has already taken place;
3. what they’re doing - a plainly highly unstable arrangement, & one which ends the UK .../32.

... which has existed since 1922 - is politically & legally sustainable.

Caledonian Calamity

So much for Ireland & NI. In Scotland the Brexit debacle has caused a significant shift in public opinion, with now consistent majorities in favour of independence from the UK. /33.

Scottish independence can happen by a peaceful, democratic, legally regulated process. Or chaotically. Red warning lights are starting to flash. Of course, it could also not happen. But that’s the point: Brexit, & the English nationalism of which it’s a main expression, .../34.

... is slowly but surely squeezing the life out of the status quo option. Even in Wales, support for independence has reached 30%, which is astonishing. Imagine it: 500 years of history, & the UK itself, ended by Brexit. In the name of the recovery of UK “sovereignty”. /35.

Hotel California Brexit or British Breakup

In summary, therefore, the UK-Ireland dimension prevents any politically or legally sustainable Brexit, other than continued Customs Union & Single Market membership. Any Brexit “deal”, or “no deal”, ends the UK on 1 January, .../36.

... with NI being splintered off, & likely precipitates the UK’s complete disintegration, with the departure of Scotland & even Wales.

From the Regulatory to the Fishily Foolish

What of the possible “deal”? The discussions between UK & EU are mainly on the .../37.

... trade & economic consequences of the UK leaving the EU Customs Union & Single Market.

The issues which have been “solved” so far will, in fact, lead to serious problems for the UK (& some for the EU), a number of which are touched on, above. /38.

Two big issues not “solved” are the so-called “level playing field” & fishing. The first of these is fundamental. The second is farcical.

The LPF is the EU’s way of saying the UK has to abide by the EU’s regulatory regime or be substantially hindered from participating .../39.

...in the EU’s market. The more access the UK has to the EU market, the more it has to abide by EU regulations. The UK, characteristically, is looking at the cake it currently has (unfettered access to the EU market, still, during the 2020 transition period) & would like .../40.

... to keep it - it’s a highly valuable privilege, as our PM & chief negotiator well know - while eating it (ignoring, as the UK sees fit, any or all of the EU’s regulations).

The UK claims that the EU provided Canada with a similar arrangement in a recent free trade .../41.

... agreement (“CETA”). That’s wrong. But even if it were true, Canada does about 1/5th the amount of trade with the EU compared to the UK, its economy is about 60% that of the UK, and it’s over 5,000 km from, not next door to, the EU. /42.

The EU can, with low risk, offer things to a country like Canada, which it won’t countenance for a country of the UK’s economic size & level of trade, right on its doorstep. The LPF discussion could easily collapse into a “no deal”. /43.

As for fishing, back in 1972 during membership negotiations, the UK had to agree to the EEC fishing rules. There was much anger from fishing & anti-EEC folk. But, that was that. Now, here we are again, 48 years later. Fishing is 0.02% of UK GDP. /44.

The UK could pay every fisherperson double to stay at home. No one would notice the rounding error.

Pariah State UK

Before completing this round up, let’s remember that the Brexit under discussion removes the citizenship rights in the UK of every EU citizen & forces .../45.

... those resident in the UK to apply for a lesser status, which they might not get, with the associated threat of deportation and destruction of family life.

And let’s recall, as the incoming Biden Administration is bit by bit making clear, that .../46.

... Brexit destabilises the US-led alliance on which the UK, Europe & the wider world depend for economic prosperity & national security.

If the UK does crash out on 1 January - either with a “deal” (terrible) or “no deal” (worse than terrible) - .../47.

... the result will be instability, confusion &, quite possibly, acute crisis. The USA & other countries will not just stand by if their vital national interests - as they choose to interpret them - are under threat. Nor will they help the UK out of the mess it’s created .../48.

... for itself, if it’s just a matter of sentiment or sympathy. The UK’s fate will be firmly in the hands of others.

Final thoughts

Voluntarily reducing your country’s prosperity & security is lunacy. Or so it seems to many of us. /49.

Doing so in the middle of a once in a century pandemic brings a new quality to the level of dystopian, mental contortion at play.

It’s hard, at least for those like me who’ve been fortunate enough to live our lives in what we thought was national stability & safety .../50.

... (despite bumpy patches) to come to terms with the extremity of irresponsibility, incompetence & insanity which has become the norm over the last five years. But here we all are. /51.

And all for a Brexit - a viciously insular vision of English nationalism, cloaked by some in vacuous & cynically fake rhetoric about “Global Britain” - which is untenable. /52.

A Brexit which will, “deal” or “no deal”, terminate the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland, after 99 years. The country for which its principal promise was it would “take back control”.

Thirty-one days. 6, 4, 2. Tick tock.

[England 1 December 2020] /53. End