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Some non-Georgians on this bird app seem to be addicted to this idea that they (1) understand the dynamics on the ground here and (2) think that Democrats win by always pretending weâre behind.
Personally, Iâm ready to blow up both ideas.
Personally, Iâm ready to blow up both ideas.
(1) If youâre not in Georgia, youâre wrong about Georgia.
I can almost guarantee that.
Yâall read a few articles and think you know this state, but you donât.
Maybe you know what it was like 5, 10, 20 years ago.
But not today.
I can almost guarantee that.
Yâall read a few articles and think you know this state, but you donât.
Maybe you know what it was like 5, 10, 20 years ago.
But not today.
Yes, historically the GOP is heavily favored in runoff elections.
No, we have no data in recent enough memory to assume thatâs still true. In fact, I think itâs very much not true.
Democrats are in a much better position right now relative to the GOP by all available measures.
No, we have no data in recent enough memory to assume thatâs still true. In fact, I think itâs very much not true.
Democrats are in a much better position right now relative to the GOP by all available measures.
Those measures are mostly circumstantial, of course.
But itâs the best we have.
The GOP here is in total disarray.
Itâs bad. Like comically bad. Perfect storm bad.
But itâs the best we have.
The GOP here is in total disarray.
Itâs bad. Like comically bad. Perfect storm bad.
First offâthe President was THE driving force here for the GOP.
The GOP here is basically indistinguishable from the Klan. Theyâve driven out all moderates.
They wonât even defend their *leaders* here, like Governor Brian Kemp.
They take their cues from Trump.
The GOP here is basically indistinguishable from the Klan. Theyâve driven out all moderates.
They wonât even defend their *leaders* here, like Governor Brian Kemp.
They take their cues from Trump.
Perdue and Loeffler have no real constituency here. Maybe Perdue a bit, but Loeffler is like a prototype swamp creature (they both are really).
If Trump decided to turn his fire on them directly, no GOP leaders in Georgia would stand up for them in any meaningful way.
If Trump decided to turn his fire on them directly, no GOP leaders in Georgia would stand up for them in any meaningful way.
Perdue did run sightly ahead of Trump. But pundits nationwide completely misunderstood why this happened.
It wasnât because these candidates had broader support. It was because they had just a tiny bit of their own support on top of TRUMP support. They just benefited from it.
It wasnât because these candidates had broader support. It was because they had just a tiny bit of their own support on top of TRUMP support. They just benefited from it.
Without Trump on the ballot, it will be VERY difficult to motivate these voters to turn out.
But itâs much worse than that. Trump is barely even *asking* his voters to support them, has cast doubt on the efficacy of voting *at all*, and has even got his voters ANGRY at them.
But itâs much worse than that. Trump is barely even *asking* his voters to support them, has cast doubt on the efficacy of voting *at all*, and has even got his voters ANGRY at them.
Here is what happened when @GOPChairwoman came to Georgia this week to try to get the runoff campaigns off the ground.
It was a disaster.
It was a disaster.
Yâall really think this is the party that has the advantage heading into the runoff?
Meanwhile, Georgia Democrats under the leadership of @staceyabrams, @NikemaWilliams, and many other amazing leaders had built a ground operation here unlike any other. Dems are FIRED UP.
Meanwhile, Georgia Democrats under the leadership of @staceyabrams, @NikemaWilliams, and many other amazing leaders had built a ground operation here unlike any other. Dems are FIRED UP.
Now, to get to point (2).
I know Dems are basically wired to be chicken littles. I know âignore the pollsâ and âact like weâre 20 points behindâ is popular.
While I agree, in this case, ignore the polls, I do not agree with playing like weâre behind.
I know Dems are basically wired to be chicken littles. I know âignore the pollsâ and âact like weâre 20 points behindâ is popular.
While I agree, in this case, ignore the polls, I do not agree with playing like weâre behind.
Fear is a motivator, no doubt. But hope is far BETTER a motivator, especially for folks on our side.
If we believe we are winning, we run even faster through the finish line ribbon.
Folks like to be on the winning team.
If we believe we are winning, we run even faster through the finish line ribbon.
Folks like to be on the winning team.
So I will say it since no one else will: Democrats @ReverendWarnock and @ossoff are winning and WILL WIN.
We may be just a point or two ahead, but we could win by 10.
Iâm not just saying that. Itâs really possible.
See, 2008. https://twitter.com/jakereif/status/1329072283571273745
We may be just a point or two ahead, but we could win by 10.
Iâm not just saying that. Itâs really possible.
See, 2008. https://twitter.com/jakereif/status/1329072283571273745
Running away with a runoff is obviously not easy, but itâs possible, because it ALL comes down to turnout.
In 2008, this landslide occurred after a razor tight general election, even tho BOTH candidates lost a massive amount of raw votes.
In 2008, this landslide occurred after a razor tight general election, even tho BOTH candidates lost a massive amount of raw votes.
Will this happen again, in reverse? I wonât say it WILL, but I will say it CAN.
The GOP has a massive amount of work ahead to turn out Trump voters. Can they do it? Of course.
But the wind is at OUR backs, not theirs.
The GOP has a massive amount of work ahead to turn out Trump voters. Can they do it? Of course.
But the wind is at OUR backs, not theirs.
