Thread by @faisalislam, Taxation Bill being prepared for HoC next week that could contain, if [...]

Taxation Bill being prepared for HoC next week that could contain, if necessary, the “notwithstanding” clauses which would deactivate some elements of NI Protocol & allow UK unilaterally to determine “at risk” goods from GB to NI. breach of international law NI Protocol like IMB

Understand as currently planned would be Taxation Bill (Post Transition Period) not formally a Finance Bill, but clearly whatever it is called, the plan is that it bypasses House of Lords as a money bill... legislative time short too.

Government likely to argue legislation needed to provide powers for customs and VAT outside EU, single market and customs union, and supports deal objectives to allow unfettered access to from NI for GB trade..I asked Chancellor directly last month about such HMT legislation:

Chancellor responded then: “with regard to Northern Ireland our priority remains to protect the Good Friday Agreement, make sure that we can have the free flow of trade within our United Kingdom, the measures that we've put in place, are a safety net... 1/2

“2/2...to ensure that to make sure that if there wasn't, good faith or cooperation from our partners”....”we'll be able to act to do that, but they are there as a safety net and insurance and very much hope that they're not necessary”.

Clearly Internal Market Bill was controversial enough, but mainly concerned NI to GB...this is about GB -> NI, which as @JP_biz points out potentially far trickier.

if No Deal, & also “at risk” not defined bilaterally in Joint Comm, Government thinks this necessary for certainty

Trade deal/JC deal makes this go away, some briefings today from Govt to third parties have pushed expectations from end of this week into next week for possible conclusion.
My sense is that we are right at end of legislative timetable, not that this is meant as negotiation ploy

Nonetheless, backdrop of a US President elect who tweeted out a Congressional letter to PM in September which urged the PM to “abandon any and all legally questionable and unfair efforts to flout the Northern Ireland protocol of the Withdrawal Agreement”, makes this a tightrope

Separately picking up combination of concern and bewilderment in business interactions over NI Protocol, at this late stage. Some expectation of generalised unilateral easement on customs to be announced imminently (a breach of Protocol). Reassurances sought over legal liability

Blog coming... in the meantime read this from my colleague expert in Belfast @JP_biz https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55147159

Brexit: What will change for Northern Ireland on 1 January

On 31 December England, Scotland and Wales will leave the EU's single market for goods. NI will not.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55147159

Asked Chancellor about this last month, just after Biden announced President elect, & I was left with distinct impression this was some one who didn’t relish such legislation, & would much rather be talking about Cop-26 with Joe & Kamala

-on that basis, I still expect a deal.

worth visualising G7 summit PM hopes to host in person next year, full of post vaccine positivity, and Cop-26 cooperation as Biden rejoins Paris Accord...

Or will 5/9 (VDL/Michel also come with