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[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!).
Key insights:
https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk
![[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights: https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoKESi2XcAM3IAo.png "[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights: https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk")
![[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights: https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoKESi4XYAMxE_s.png "[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights: https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk")
![[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights: https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoKESi5XEAAXWbI.png "[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights: https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk")
![[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights: https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoKESi3XYAENy0n.png "[1/8]Given all the uncertainty swirling around it, I put together a detailed analysis of $DASH's unit economics. As it turns out, a relatively simple model captures most of the customer dynamics (great fits!). Key insights: https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk")
Key insights:
https://bit.ly/3lqUAfk
[2/8]
1/ Exeptional repeat buying -- e.g., customers do ~2.6 orders in yr 1, 3.5 in yr 2, even more thereafter. Very back end loaded.
2/ Variable margin is thin but expands over calendar time and tenure: < 0% in yr 1 to 10% in yr 3 => valuation sensitive to margin assumptions.
1/ Exeptional repeat buying -- e.g., customers do ~2.6 orders in yr 1, 3.5 in yr 2, even more thereafter. Very back end loaded.
2/ Variable margin is thin but expands over calendar time and tenure: < 0% in yr 1 to 10% in yr 3 => valuation sensitive to margin assumptions.
[3/8]
3/ Even w/ short horizon CLV estimates, unit economics look exceptionally strong. I infer that $DASH gets a return on CAC of 250% and ~900% over 3 and 5 yrs, respectively. Very good, significantly de-risks their unit economics despite back end loaded monetization.
3/ Even w/ short horizon CLV estimates, unit economics look exceptionally strong. I infer that $DASH gets a return on CAC of 250% and ~900% over 3 and 5 yrs, respectively. Very good, significantly de-risks their unit economics despite back end loaded monetization.
[4/8]
4/ COVID has been a huge shot in the arm, but as with other companies ( https://bit.ly/33z5326 ), bigger boost for acquisition than retention. I infer ~200% increase in business from new customers relative to baseline due to COVID, vs 70% increase from existing customers.
![[4/8]4/ COVID has been a huge shot in the arm, but as with other companies ( https://bit.ly/33z5326 ), bigger boost for acquisition than retention. I infer ~200% increase in business from new customers relative to baseline due to COVID, vs 70% increase from existing customers.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoKHPT8XIAA4HeJ.png "[4/8]4/ COVID has been a huge shot in the arm, but as with other companies ( https://bit.ly/33z5326 ), bigger boost for acquisition than retention. I infer ~200% increase in business from new customers relative to baseline due to COVID, vs 70% increase from existing customers.")
4/ COVID has been a huge shot in the arm, but as with other companies ( https://bit.ly/33z5326 ), bigger boost for acquisition than retention. I infer ~200% increase in business from new customers relative to baseline due to COVID, vs 70% increase from existing customers.
[5/8]
5/ If their customer acquisition data can be trusted, $DASH is spending about $6 to acquire customers, making back $21-60 after acquisition over a 3-5 year horizon...
5/ If their customer acquisition data can be trusted, $DASH is spending about $6 to acquire customers, making back $21-60 after acquisition over a 3-5 year horizon...
[6/8]
6/ ...but I think there may be some sort of data error in a key chart in the filing which could change these inferences. As a result of this, everything (CAC and CLV) could be 4x larger.
![[6/8]6/ ...but I think there may be some sort of data error in a key chart in the filing which could change these inferences. As a result of this, everything (CAC and CLV) could be 4x larger.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoKHUThXYAMJDMG.png "[6/8]6/ ...but I think there may be some sort of data error in a key chart in the filing which could change these inferences. As a result of this, everything (CAC and CLV) could be 4x larger.")
6/ ...but I think there may be some sort of data error in a key chart in the filing which could change these inferences. As a result of this, everything (CAC and CLV) could be 4x larger.
[7/8]
7/ If their customer acquisition data is to be trusted, might bode less well for overall valuation -- already acquired more of their TAM, which would create headwinds for acquisition, and/or drop goodness of customers due to possible abuse of new customer promo discounts.
7/ If their customer acquisition data is to be trusted, might bode less well for overall valuation -- already acquired more of their TAM, which would create headwinds for acquisition, and/or drop goodness of customers due to possible abuse of new customer promo discounts.
[8/8]
8/ A more detailed analysis that is significantly more comprehensive and applies to the entire restaurant meal delivery category will be coming soon.
8/ A more detailed analysis that is significantly more comprehensive and applies to the entire restaurant meal delivery category will be coming soon.
