New this morning: our annual labor-market review & outlook post.

Better than feared, but plenty of damage remains.

1/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

First, good news. Most labor-market measures are more than halfway back from their April/May low. And the labor market will end the year well ahead of what was projected at mid-year.

https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

2/

But much of the rebound has been the easy part -- businesses reopening and recalling those temporarily laid off. Measures of more chronic damage look grimmer. Core unemployment, which strips out temporary furloughs, remains elevated.

https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

3/

Even the sectors least directly affected by the pandemic have lost jobs. High work-from-home sectors like tech, finance, and professional services are down nearly as much as in the entire Great Recession.

4/

https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

The coronavirus recession really was different. It hit services more than goods, and therefore was more severe in big cities, for women, and for Blacks and Hispanics, whose unemployment rates remain especially high.

5/

https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

The pandemic hurt not just labor demand but also labor supply. School and child-care closures have created huge caregiving burdens for parents, especially mothers.

6/

https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

Leisure & hospitality lost half its jobs at the worst of the pandemic. Other sectors, like media (part of "information") and personal services also suffered. But every broad sector lost jobs.

7/

https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

Still, some industries were only paused, not damaged. Others have rebounded. And the few winners were the industries and businesses that support the stay-at-home economy.

8/

https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

The big wildcards for 2021:

1) the virus, of course
2) politics, including emergency relief
3) whether pandemic behaviors persist longer-term -- like the shift from services to goods and from in-office to remote work.

https://www.hiringlab.org/2020/12/01/2020-labor-market-review-2021-outlook/

9/end