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SNP internal elections... these are the first that have received much scrutiny and analysis since devolution. Pre-devolution, National Exec Cttee results were best indicator of shifting internal politics. But focus shifted to balance amongst MSPs. So back to the future...
Most obvious conclusion is the activists are not as content or adulatory as many imagined. Indeed, looks like a reaction against the exceptional efforts and resource expended on building the leader. Doesn’t mean no confidence in leader at all but a clear shot across bows.
Big losers are ultra-loyalists and those who *perceived* (stress perceived here as that was not always intention) to have licensed attacks on critics of leader (ie attacks on Joanna Cherry). There’s a lesson in responsible politics there - interesting to see if lesson is learned.
But winners are not a coherent or organised group or faction. Far from it. But if this disparate group of winners are treated as an homogeneous grouping (and criticised, attacked, undermined) then coherence and organisation may follow (cohesion follows perceived external threat).
Don’t read too much into individual votes. Everyone expected Mike Russell to win the presidency which allowed many who would otherwise vote for him to cast a protest vote (though not against him). Lots of over-excited interpretations of vote for ‘Another’ in that contest.
Less commented upon but potentially most interesting is the role of SNP Common Weal. Difficult to assess as many of this group (the nearest to an organised faction in SNP) may owe success (not only in these elections but Holyrood candidacies) less to CW than individual diligence.
Key messages: Joanna Cherry would be wise not to read too much into these results and Nicola Sturgeon would be foolish to ignore them.
