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The Northern Ireland Protocol & the Irish Sea border are supposed to take effect at the end of this month. That’s this month. 11pm on 31 December. There are a lot of outstanding questions.
Remember even if Frost & Barnier can strike a trade deal that only directly solves one issue on Irish Sea trade - the possibility of tariffs on GB-NI trade.
A zero tariff trade deal on all UK-EU trade would mean the whole issue of ‘at risk’ GB goods leaking into the customs union via NI goes away. So a deal means no tariffs GB-NI. But the customs processes issue remains.
GB-NI trade will need customs declarations. As many as 30m a year. Are businesses ready? Will several interlocking IT systems work properly?
Then there is the well advertised food issue: GB-NI meat, fish, eggs & dairy will need export health certs & proportions of goods will be subject to physical checks. How will this work in practice? Is there a cunning plan which can be unlocked by a trade deal?
There’s the lower profile issue of GB-NI e-commerce ie. most of the non-food online shopping done in NI. In theory all parcels will need customs declarations. Since the summer the govt has been promising details on how this will work. So far consumers have heard nothing.
Businesses in NI are expecting more details this week. But it’s not yet clear if that will be unilateral measures from the UK govt or the fruits of an agreement from the Joint Ctte (the EU-UK body overseeing the NI deal.)
Also this morning in the @IrishTimes the Taoiseach raises the possibility of a trade deal paving the way to the ‘grace period’ that NI business is begging for
