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What's my problem with the Government's current policy?
It is a policy founded on a false premise; which has been shown to be false yet it continues to dominate the policy.
That false premise is that the vast majority of the population is susceptible to COVID19.
We aren't.
It is a policy founded on a false premise; which has been shown to be false yet it continues to dominate the policy.
That false premise is that the vast majority of the population is susceptible to COVID19.
We aren't.
Who can forget that chart. Even the lowest bound of the lowest forecast exceeded the spring peak.
Why?
Because SAGE believe only a tiny fraction (7%) have immunity and that the only reason COVID went away was because of SAGE's wise policies
But it is not true.
Why?
Because SAGE believe only a tiny fraction (7%) have immunity and that the only reason COVID went away was because of SAGE's wise policies
But it is not true.
It neglects T-cell immunity and cross-virus immunity. Who knows what the actual number is but look at Sweden, there are only minor restrictions there but their death numbers are no different to ours.
The reality is lockdowns and tiers make much less difference than the SAGE scientists believe.
Infections had peaked before lockdown#1, same before lockdown#2.
Lockdown#1 made sense as there were too many unknowns, and too much risk of the NHS being overwhelmed.
Lockdown#2 no
Infections had peaked before lockdown#1, same before lockdown#2.
Lockdown#1 made sense as there were too many unknowns, and too much risk of the NHS being overwhelmed.
Lockdown#2 no
The only thing that justified lockdown#2 were those ridiculous charts. The only thing that justifies the tiers is the fear that comes from believing almost all of us are susceptible.
We aren't, this second wave is just a (much more deadly) seasonal coronavirus doing what a...
We aren't, this second wave is just a (much more deadly) seasonal coronavirus doing what a...
...seasonal coronavirus does.
If you set aside models and let the data guide you it is possible to forecast how deaths will evolve. Here is that data including that forecast.
Lockdown may help reduce the infection rate more rapidly but the virus growth rate had peaked before lockdown#2 made a difference
Lockdown may help reduce the infection rate more rapidly but the virus growth rate had peaked before lockdown#2 made a difference
That can only happen if the bulk of the population is not susceptible.
We are having a seasonal peak of a very nasty but unstoppable bug. Lockdowns and tiers slow the spread they can't stop it.
Yet policy is driven by this misconception that we are almost all susceptible.
We are having a seasonal peak of a very nasty but unstoppable bug. Lockdowns and tiers slow the spread they can't stop it.
Yet policy is driven by this misconception that we are almost all susceptible.
The SAGE forecasts look even more ridiculous when put in context.
They really believed that there was no chance of the winter wave being less than the first wave in a naïve population.
They really believed that there was no chance of the winter wave being less than the first wave in a naïve population.
