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Oscar (masked dog): The PM says we’ll have good vaccine coverage by September.
Old Fart [OF]: Very likely true based on numbers ordered. But we can’t just focus on the finish line and ignore the toll that will be taken if there’s a delayed start. 1/n
Old Fart [OF]: Very likely true based on numbers ordered. But we can’t just focus on the finish line and ignore the toll that will be taken if there’s a delayed start. 1/n
Oscar: Will there be a delay? The Moderna chair said on @PnP that Canada moved fast and “is not at the back of the line”. https://bit.ly/2JpUmHT
OF: Yes, so far, so good. But figuring out where we are in the line is complicated. 2/n
OF: Yes, so far, so good. But figuring out where we are in the line is complicated. 2/n
Oscar: Isn’t our place in the line clear-cut?
OF: Far from it. Depends on choice of comparators, vaccines, and metrics. Arguably many different line-ups. And it’s all still really fluid. 3/n
OF: Far from it. Depends on choice of comparators, vaccines, and metrics. Arguably many different line-ups. And it’s all still really fluid. 3/n
Oscar: Comparators?
OF: Start with China. As a comparator, they’re way ahead. Giving vaccines developed & produced locally to extremely large numbers of people. No reported Phase 3 trials. I’d say they’re way ahead of the evidence, too. 4/n
OF: Start with China. As a comparator, they’re way ahead. Giving vaccines developed & produced locally to extremely large numbers of people. No reported Phase 3 trials. I’d say they’re way ahead of the evidence, too. 4/n
Oscar: We won’t get Chinese vaccines anyway.
OF: Others might. Sinovac has Phase 3 RCTs in Brazil and Indonesia. Results aren’t expected until December. Political opposition to Sinovac in Brazil, but Indonesia could produce it at scale, and zoom ahead. 5/n
OF: Others might. Sinovac has Phase 3 RCTs in Brazil and Indonesia. Results aren’t expected until December. Political opposition to Sinovac in Brazil, but Indonesia could produce it at scale, and zoom ahead. 5/n
Oscar: Other wild cards?
OF: Russia's double-adenovirus 'Sputnik V'. Phase 3 interim analysis claims 91.4% efficacy. Not on Canada’s lists. But has national customers that can manufacture it fast. As I said, more than one line-up here. 6/n
OF: Russia's double-adenovirus 'Sputnik V'. Phase 3 interim analysis claims 91.4% efficacy. Not on Canada’s lists. But has national customers that can manufacture it fast. As I said, more than one line-up here. 6/n
Oscar: Who sits where we are?
OF: Australia and Argentina look like us, but w/ more doses in Q1. Italy similar but with fewer doses. Japan has similar doses per capita for Q1/2, but their final picture depends a lot on Novavax which hasn't started Phase 3 trials yet. 7/n
OF: Australia and Argentina look like us, but w/ more doses in Q1. Italy similar but with fewer doses. Japan has similar doses per capita for Q1/2, but their final picture depends a lot on Novavax which hasn't started Phase 3 trials yet. 7/n
Oscar: Who's ahead?
OF: I'd say the US, UK, Germany, & Spain. But it's all speculative. And remember, it’s all relative.
Oscar: Relative to what?
OF: Population. e.g. India has domestic options & a big Sputnik V contract. Aiming to vaccinate 250M people by end Q2. 8/n
OF: I'd say the US, UK, Germany, & Spain. But it's all speculative. And remember, it’s all relative.
Oscar: Relative to what?
OF: Population. e.g. India has domestic options & a big Sputnik V contract. Aiming to vaccinate 250M people by end Q2. 8/n
Oscar: Wow!
OF: Amazing for sure. But only 18% of the population. Likewise, when the US says it will have 40M doses in December, you need to divide by 9 for population & 2 for doses to measure it in Canucks. 9/n
OF: Amazing for sure. But only 18% of the population. Likewise, when the US says it will have 40M doses in December, you need to divide by 9 for population & 2 for doses to measure it in Canucks. 9/n
Oscar: Can Canada do this?
OF: If the vaccines arrive on schedule & we do something really rare.
Oscar: What's that?
OF: Get our national shit together. Full F/P/T collaboration to immunize millions of Canadians, w/ proper oversight for safety and effectiveness. 10/n
OF: If the vaccines arrive on schedule & we do something really rare.
Oscar: What's that?
OF: Get our national shit together. Full F/P/T collaboration to immunize millions of Canadians, w/ proper oversight for safety and effectiveness. 10/n
Oscar: Bottom lines?
OF: It's too complicated for predictions & pronouncements. But we're not badly positioned. Just can't let up on epidemic response.
Oscar: Can I hope for a better summer next year?
OF: Yep, and I'll do the same. 11/11
OF: It's too complicated for predictions & pronouncements. But we're not badly positioned. Just can't let up on epidemic response.
Oscar: Can I hope for a better summer next year?
OF: Yep, and I'll do the same. 11/11
