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I think it's worth preparing yourself for what's coming this week. I'm going to walk through what I think we'll see. https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1333574898464112640
@COVID19Tracking doesn't create projections. I'm just talking as me here, working from the model that @trvrb created to help think about the relationship between cases and deaths.
More on that here: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/coronavirus-death-rate-third-surge/617150/
More on that here: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/coronavirus-death-rate-third-surge/617150/
The basic idea is that cases reported three weeks ago are a remarkably good predictor of deaths reported today.
That is, unless you have a weird reporting situation, as Thanksgiving created. Here's what the model showed going into Thanksgiving (up to the 25th).
That is, unless you have a weird reporting situation, as Thanksgiving created. Here's what the model showed going into Thanksgiving (up to the 25th).
But then Thanksgiving hits and from the 26th to today, the relationship, which had held since July, falls apart.
So, now, we're way off the data trend, and yet there's no reason to expect that the reality underlying that data has changed. We're going to head back up to that curve.
This is what happened around Labor Day. It took a week to return to trend.
This is what happened around Labor Day. It took a week to return to trend.
That was when deaths were slowly falling. Now, deaths are *rising* as the data catches up. The upshot: to return to the real trend, we're likely to see quite a few days of more than 3k deaths reported.
This is what the model chart looks like with 5 days of 3k deaths in a row.
This is what the model chart looks like with 5 days of 3k deaths in a row.
It may not happen exactly like this. The catchup may not begin tomorrow—or it could get stretched out over 7, even 10 days. But something like this will happen. A shocking number of deaths will be reported, more than at any other time in the pandemic.
With vaccines on their way, this is just tragic.
The Trump Administration made—at best—a terrible miscalculation. White House advisors minimized the pandemic and now thousands of people are going to die every day for weeks and weeks.
I will not forget or forgive that.
The Trump Administration made—at best—a terrible miscalculation. White House advisors minimized the pandemic and now thousands of people are going to die every day for weeks and weeks.
I will not forget or forgive that.
If you need some uplift after this thread, try the Beacon High School chorus. A colleague sent this over and it is beautiful on multiple levels.
