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There is talk of this being *the* crunch week in Brexit negotiations
But, I'm sorry to say, the end of negotiations won't mean the end of Brexit.
Many consequences of Brexit will play out well into 2021+ beyond - demanding gov and business attention
Just a few examples...
But, I'm sorry to say, the end of negotiations won't mean the end of Brexit.
Many consequences of Brexit will play out well into 2021+ beyond - demanding gov and business attention
Just a few examples...
Deal or no deal, the end of the year will be a watershed moment in the UK's trading + security relationship with the EU-with new customs + regulatory barriers to trade, clunkier security coop + an end to free movement of people
Despite this, we can't waive bye to Brexit just yet
Despite this, we can't waive bye to Brexit just yet
1. Disruption. The scale of the changes coming + devastating impact of coronavirus on preparations mean that disruption - especially at the border - is highly likely.
Gov, local authorities + businesses will have to respond to this next year, while still grappling with Covid 19
Gov, local authorities + businesses will have to respond to this next year, while still grappling with Covid 19
2. Phased in changes. Not all Brexit changes take effect at the end of the year. The UK will phase in new checks on imports over 6 months and not fully implement new UK regulatory regimes in areas like chemicals and financial services straightaway, to allow more time to prepare
This has created a complex patchwork of deadlines for gov and biz to prepare for - with changes biting well into 2021 and beyond
The EU is not planning to reciprocate these measures - meaning different timeframes for Brexit changes on each side of the channel...
The EU is not planning to reciprocate these measures - meaning different timeframes for Brexit changes on each side of the channel...
Depending on the outcome of negotiations, a deal may also involve some rules changing over time.
For instance, speaking on @AndrewMarr9, @DominicRaab suggested again that changes to fishing rights could be phased in over several years... https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/sunday-crunch/politico-sunday-crunch-stick-and-carrot-throwing-bones-netting-a-fish-deal/amp/
For instance, speaking on @AndrewMarr9, @DominicRaab suggested again that changes to fishing rights could be phased in over several years... https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/sunday-crunch/politico-sunday-crunch-stick-and-carrot-throwing-bones-netting-a-fish-deal/amp/
As @SamuelMarcLowe outlines in his excellent blog - there is also a risk of 'accidental illegality' -with businesses facing complex new rules likely to find themselves acting illegally-raising big qu for UK and EU authorities about how to enforce new rules https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1333314410505523200
3. Talks may continue. Even when current Brexit talks end, there could be more in future.
If a deal is reached, it might be a platform to build upon in future (as @UKLabour seem to want and @CBItweets raised at our recent @instituteforgov event) https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/brexit-deal-or-no-deal
If a deal is reached, it might be a platform to build upon in future (as @UKLabour seem to want and @CBItweets raised at our recent @instituteforgov event) https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/brexit-deal-or-no-deal
If there is no deal, disruption could bring the UK and EU back to the table (although the politics mean this might not happen quickly).
It could also see bilateral talks with EU states on narrow issues like social security.
The UK-EU relationship will not be fixed from 31 Dec.
It could also see bilateral talks with EU states on narrow issues like social security.
The UK-EU relationship will not be fixed from 31 Dec.
4. The NI protocol will need to be renewed.
The NI Assembly will vote on the protocol every 4-8 years - meaning the difficult issue of avoiding a hard border in NI could arise again if the current protocol proves unpopular.
The NI Assembly will vote on the protocol every 4-8 years - meaning the difficult issue of avoiding a hard border in NI could arise again if the current protocol proves unpopular.
5. As @jillongovt and @NickHuwJones have said, problems are brewing for EU citizens in the UK. 4m have applied for settled status, but the gov needs a plan deal with those that don't+ensure 'pre-settled status' can be easily upgraded. If not, millions could end up here unlawfully
6. Post Brexit domestic policy is still in flux.
While 'taking back control' has shaped the UK's negotiating position, as a legal default, the gov has chose to keep most EU policy in place at the end of the transition period. But it could diverge in future.
While 'taking back control' has shaped the UK's negotiating position, as a legal default, the gov has chose to keep most EU policy in place at the end of the transition period. But it could diverge in future.
Legislation to give ministers powers to change policy in areas like agriculture and the environment has been passed or is in Parliament. More detail on the gov's plans for agriculture funding have been published today. But lots of detail and policy choices remain outstanding...
Deal or no deal, the end of the year will bring huge changes. But Brexit will not be done.
With Brexit changes being phased in, decisions still to be made and the UK-EU relationship likely to change over time, gov and business will be thinking about Brexit for a long time yet...
With Brexit changes being phased in, decisions still to be made and the UK-EU relationship likely to change over time, gov and business will be thinking about Brexit for a long time yet...
For more on what is changing at the end of the year, check out our @instituteforgov explainers, including on the difference between a deal and no deal outcome. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/future-relationship-brexit-deal
