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THREAD: We know there was a very large & unexpected shift to Trump in Miami-Dade & the Rio Grande Valley counties in t 2020 presidential election.
Previously, I tried to get a sense for how rare it is to see a shift of this magnitude in those counties. https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1327622972006412288?s=20
Previously, I tried to get a sense for how rare it is to see a shift of this magnitude in those counties. https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1327622972006412288?s=20
Another way to appreciate what happened in Miami-Dade and RGV is to compare their 2020 results with every county in the United States (Alaska excluded) across multiple elections.
To that end, I examined county level data for every presidential election since 2000
To that end, I examined county level data for every presidential election since 2000
I looked at two measures:
1. % increase in raw votes for a party's presidential candidate from one election to next
(So, if a Rep. presidential candidate received 10 votes in Year A, & 4 years later the Rep. candidate receives 20 votes, we'd say that is a 100% increase)
1. % increase in raw votes for a party's presidential candidate from one election to next
(So, if a Rep. presidential candidate received 10 votes in Year A, & 4 years later the Rep. candidate receives 20 votes, we'd say that is a 100% increase)
2. % increase in vote share for a party's presidential candidate from one election to the next.
(So, if a Rep presidential candidate received 20% of a county's vote in Year A, & 4 years later the Rep. candidate receives 35%, we say that is 15% increase.)
(So, if a Rep presidential candidate received 20% of a county's vote in Year A, & 4 years later the Rep. candidate receives 35%, we say that is 15% increase.)
Starting with first measure:
-In 5 elections across 2900+ counties, a party doubled its votes (100% increase) in a county only 10 times
-That is, 10 out of a possible 29,000+ data points. (2900+ counties, 5 elections, 2 candidates)
-4 of those 10 occurred in S. Texas in 2020
-In 5 elections across 2900+ counties, a party doubled its votes (100% increase) in a county only 10 times
-That is, 10 out of a possible 29,000+ data points. (2900+ counties, 5 elections, 2 candidates)
-4 of those 10 occurred in S. Texas in 2020
Starr County, Texas leads the way.
Trump jumped from 2224 votes in 2016, to 8247 votes in 2020. That is a 271% increase in votes for Trump from '16-'20.
It is the largest percentage increase of raw votes in any county since 2000.
Trump jumped from 2224 votes in 2016, to 8247 votes in 2020. That is a 271% increase in votes for Trump from '16-'20.
It is the largest percentage increase of raw votes in any county since 2000.
Todd, SD: 993 Gore-2543 Kerry
Maverick, TX: 2816 Trump16- 6881 Trump20
Buffalo, SD: 256 Gore-603 Kerry
Oktibbeha, MS: 4178 Kerry - 9326 Obama
Sterling, TX: 31 Obama - 70 Clinton
Zavala, TX: 694 Trump16 - 1490 Trump20
Garfield, MT: 52 Kerry - 110 Obama
Webb, TX: 12947-25898
Maverick, TX: 2816 Trump16- 6881 Trump20
Buffalo, SD: 256 Gore-603 Kerry
Oktibbeha, MS: 4178 Kerry - 9326 Obama
Sterling, TX: 31 Obama - 70 Clinton
Zavala, TX: 694 Trump16 - 1490 Trump20
Garfield, MT: 52 Kerry - 110 Obama
Webb, TX: 12947-25898
Second measure:
-In five elections across 2900+ counties, a party increased its vote share by 20% only 9 times.
- That is 9 times out of a possible 29,000+ data points. (3000 counties + Dem and Rep. candidate)
- Four of those 9 occurred in the S. Texas in 2020.
-In five elections across 2900+ counties, a party increased its vote share by 20% only 9 times.
- That is 9 times out of a possible 29,000+ data points. (3000 counties + Dem and Rep. candidate)
- Four of those 9 occurred in the S. Texas in 2020.
Again, Starr County, Texas leads the way. Trump went from 18.9% of the vote in 2016, to 47.1% in 2020. An increase of 28.2%.
Maverick, TX: 21% Trump16 - 45% Trump20
Eliot, KY: Romney 56% - 79% Trump16
Clark, MO: Romney 53% - 76% Trump16
Madison, ID: 57% Trump16 - 79% Trump20
San Miguel, CO: 49.5% Gore - 71.5% Kerry
Jim Hogg, TX: 20.5% Trump16 -41% Trump20
Eliot, KY: Romney 56% - 79% Trump16
Clark, MO: Romney 53% - 76% Trump16
Madison, ID: 57% Trump16 - 79% Trump20
San Miguel, CO: 49.5% Gore - 71.5% Kerry
Jim Hogg, TX: 20.5% Trump16 -41% Trump20
Two more things:
Because smaller counties can show greater volatility, as it takes fewer votes to create large percentage shifts, I took one pass at the data only looking at counties with 100000+ votes cast. That creates roughly 2500 data points 2000-2016.
Because smaller counties can show greater volatility, as it takes fewer votes to create large percentage shifts, I took one pass at the data only looking at counties with 100000+ votes cast. That creates roughly 2500 data points 2000-2016.
Hidalgo and Miami-Dade are two highly populated counties where Trump made substantial gains
Out of approximately 2500 data points, only Obama’s gains in Hamilton, IN match Trump’s gains in Hidalgo, Tex.
No other counties with 100000+ votes come close to these two shifts
Out of approximately 2500 data points, only Obama’s gains in Hamilton, IN match Trump’s gains in Hidalgo, Tex.
No other counties with 100000+ votes come close to these two shifts
Hidalgo, TX:
+86% Trump votes (48,642 Trump16 - 90,527 Trump20)
+13% Trump vote share (28% Trump16- 41% Trump20).
220,884 total votes 2020
Hamilton, IN:
+88% Obama votes (26,388 Kerry - 49,704 Obama)
+13% Obama vote share (25% Kerry -38% Obama)
129,064 total votes 2008
+86% Trump votes (48,642 Trump16 - 90,527 Trump20)
+13% Trump vote share (28% Trump16- 41% Trump20).
220,884 total votes 2020
Hamilton, IN:
+88% Obama votes (26,388 Kerry - 49,704 Obama)
+13% Obama vote share (25% Kerry -38% Obama)
129,064 total votes 2008
Finally, Trump’s gains in Miami-Dade are unmatched in any county w over 500,000 votes (300 approx data points 00-20)
Among very large counties, only Travis County, in 04 comes close to the shift in Miami-Dade. But Travis is still much smaller than M-D, casting 70% fewer votes
Among very large counties, only Travis County, in 04 comes close to the shift in Miami-Dade. But Travis is still much smaller than M-D, casting 70% fewer votes
Miami-Dade
+60% votes (333,999 Trump16 – 532,833 Trump20)
+12.3% vote share (33.8% Trump16 -46.1% Trump20)
1,166,203 total votes 2020
Travis County, TX
Travis +57% Democratic votes (125,526 Gore – 197,235 Kerry)
+14% Democratic vote share (42% Gore-56% Kerry)
352,113 votes
+60% votes (333,999 Trump16 – 532,833 Trump20)
+12.3% vote share (33.8% Trump16 -46.1% Trump20)
1,166,203 total votes 2020
Travis County, TX
Travis +57% Democratic votes (125,526 Gore – 197,235 Kerry)
+14% Democratic vote share (42% Gore-56% Kerry)
352,113 votes
Trump has controlled the post-election narrative by making false claims of election fraud. His baseless assertions have distracted attention from the most interesting and unexpected result of the 2020 election. Namely, the seismic Trump-shift in Miami-Dade and the RGV.
It is extraordinarily rare to find shifts that equal the magnitude of Trump's gains in Miami-Dade and RGV in 2020 (at least since 2000).
There are many interesting explanations for what happened in these counties & you can find articles linked in my feed.
There are many interesting explanations for what happened in these counties & you can find articles linked in my feed.
However, a shift as large and unexpected - and located in two important battleground states, no less - is an outcome worthy of more detailed analysis.
If I were the Democratic Party, I'd want to know exactly what worked so well for Trump in those counties.
End.
If I were the Democratic Party, I'd want to know exactly what worked so well for Trump in those counties.
End.
