Read on Twitter
COVID myth busting:
I am an Infectious Diseases doc in Alberta.
I am still hearing people saying “rates are high because we are testing so much.”
This is a dangerous and wrong idea- please help correct people who have been misinformed.
/1
I am an Infectious Diseases doc in Alberta.
I am still hearing people saying “rates are high because we are testing so much.”
This is a dangerous and wrong idea- please help correct people who have been misinformed.
/1
We have been consistently running >10000 tests daily most days for the last 1-2 months, and both case numbers and the percent of tests positive have risen.
Explaining what these numbers tell us: If the virus was not spreading and, say, you tested twice as many people...
2/
Explaining what these numbers tell us: If the virus was not spreading and, say, you tested twice as many people...
2/
..then you shouldn’t find double the number of cases. If things were under control and you tested twice as many people, you should find very few extra cases - and the positivity rate should decrease over time with increased testing. We see the opposite.
3/
3/
Our testing has been consistently high, the average number of positive cases per day is shooting up and the average positivity rate went from 2-3% to 7-10%. In places 1 in 10 people getting testing are positive.
4/
4/
...This means a LOT of infections are being missed.
Five percent positivity is the level where we really start to worry about uncontrolled and undocumented spread.
And now ICUs are full, we are trying to expand, we are starting to see deaths increase.
4/
Five percent positivity is the level where we really start to worry about uncontrolled and undocumented spread.
And now ICUs are full, we are trying to expand, we are starting to see deaths increase.
4/
Increasing tests doesn’t fill hospitals and cause deaths. #COVID19 ripping through our communities does that.
I was on call this week. New COVID wards opening, trying to open space in hospitals get people home, seeing feverish, sweaty, achy, breathless people with COVID19.
5/
I was on call this week. New COVID wards opening, trying to open space in hospitals get people home, seeing feverish, sweaty, achy, breathless people with COVID19.
5/
I would have ZERO reason to make any of this up.
If you are doubting the realities of this, check out the list of states with accelerating epidemics that have have 1/1000 of their population die of COVID already.
In AB, that would be over 4000 people. Preventable.
6/
If you are doubting the realities of this, check out the list of states with accelerating epidemics that have have 1/1000 of their population die of COVID already.
In AB, that would be over 4000 people. Preventable.
6/
... what about the PCR??
It is partially true that a positive test may not mean active infection: the RTPCR can be positive for weeks as people recover as it can pick up dead, non infectious virus fragments. A positive test in someone with symptoms or who is a contact is...
7/
It is partially true that a positive test may not mean active infection: the RTPCR can be positive for weeks as people recover as it can pick up dead, non infectious virus fragments. A positive test in someone with symptoms or who is a contact is...
7/
Much more likely active infection, though. And the test has a really low false positive rate.
Positive tests mean you’ve had or have COVID19.
Here’s a false positive thread below.....
getting 250000 neg tests
8/
Positive tests mean you’ve had or have COVID19.
Here’s a false positive thread below.....
getting 250000 neg tests
8/
In a row with a positive control working is pretty damn impressive.
That 0.0004% or less of a false pos rate.
There are good people working on this. Denial is just hurting everyone.
#ReduceContacts
#DistanceHandwashMask
/Fin https://twitter.com/mackayim/status/1331034935935680512
That 0.0004% or less of a false pos rate.
There are good people working on this. Denial is just hurting everyone.
#ReduceContacts
#DistanceHandwashMask
/Fin https://twitter.com/mackayim/status/1331034935935680512
