Read on Twitter
I recommend @andymukherjee70's long piece here, but I have a different view.
For better or worse, China-like growth doesn't seem to be in the cards for India. But a sustainable pattern of growth, which steadily lifts many out of poverty and provides more goods, is happening. https://twitter.com/andymukherjee70/status/1332523105546162176
For better or worse, China-like growth doesn't seem to be in the cards for India. But a sustainable pattern of growth, which steadily lifts many out of poverty and provides more goods, is happening. https://twitter.com/andymukherjee70/status/1332523105546162176
You can point to lots of "cronyism" in India's economy. But what developing economy avoided this? Similarly, you can point to concerns about, say, oligarchs capturing banks. But plenty of developing countries used exactly this strategy to grow.
I completely agree about the failures on demand. But we have to be consistent. Andy points to this piece ( https://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2019/08/090819.pdf) — but this argues for a "structural demand" that is not amenable to stimulus. What does this even mean?
I see lots of expansion of basic goods; steady easing of supply side constraints; state capacity growth; formalization of the economy—and a puzzling failure to address demand side deficiencies through stimulus, monetary or fiscal. Surprising because that's the easiest thing to do
I think it's plausible that the failures on macro policy will doom the broader economic picture (and will actually cause all these things like "zombies" people worry about). But I think it's better to be specific about the problems, and see the overall trajectory.
In that sense I think India's problems are a little like the US after 2008 — growth was not *as fast as it could have been* given greater support, and that needs to be recognized — but the economy still made it up and grew overall.
I could be wrong, and it could turn out that all the deeper issues with the Indian economy are going to doom the whole enterprise.
But I think what's not helping is 1) a misguided turn towards austerity; 2) a myopic focus on avoiding any possible corporate conflict of interest, ignoring every other developing country; 3) failure to put countercylical policy front and center here.
And more broadly 4) A broken mantra of "reforms." No other country thinks about changing their economic policy in such a binary (is this "reform" or "not reform?") way, in terms that are so oriented around the interests of foreign investors ("will India open up retail sector?")
India is just like every other country, and has a continuous process of state capacity development; public goods provision; private investment; that go on whether or not we have "reforms." I'm optimistic here without being rosy-eyed.
I'm also glad India is fortunate enough to have great economic journalists like @andymukherjee70 
