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1/
One mistake that occurs regularly in the analyses on #Orban’s #veto on the #EU-budget is that they start calculating the outcomes of options for *Hungary*.
This is understandable as mature democracies always find a way to force their govs to represent core national interests
One mistake that occurs regularly in the analyses on #Orban’s #veto on the #EU-budget is that they start calculating the outcomes of options for *Hungary*.
This is understandable as mature democracies always find a way to force their govs to represent core national interests
2/
But #Hungary is no such place, and so, each analysis that considers Hungary’s interest, rather than #Orban’s interest, will not be suitable to achieve real understanding and will have limited forecasting power.
But #Hungary is no such place, and so, each analysis that considers Hungary’s interest, rather than #Orban’s interest, will not be suitable to achieve real understanding and will have limited forecasting power.
3/
As I’ve said many times, Orban would rather have EU-funds for Hungary to the tune of 1% of GDP, that he can fully control, than 5% that he can only partially control.
And this is perfectly rational, at least in his machivellist world.
As I’ve said many times, Orban would rather have EU-funds for Hungary to the tune of 1% of GDP, that he can fully control, than 5% that he can only partially control.
And this is perfectly rational, at least in his machivellist world.
4/
If in doubt, consider the 2014 case of the Norway grants.
Background is, Norway, under its agreement with the EU, provides funds akin to the EU structural funds to EU members, as a price for participating in the EU’s single market.
If in doubt, consider the 2014 case of the Norway grants.
Background is, Norway, under its agreement with the EU, provides funds akin to the EU structural funds to EU members, as a price for participating in the EU’s single market.
5/
Consequently, Hungary had also been a standard beneficiary of quite substantial funds from Norway on a permanent basis.
In 2014, a spat broke out because Orban’s government claimed, Norway is intervening in Hungarian party politics, and demanded it being stopped.
Consequently, Hungary had also been a standard beneficiary of quite substantial funds from Norway on a permanent basis.
In 2014, a spat broke out because Orban’s government claimed, Norway is intervening in Hungarian party politics, and demanded it being stopped.
6/
Factual base of the claim was while >90% of Norway’s funds were distributed by the Orban-government, a small share of it was distributed directly to NGOs
Since Norway had a strong focus on environmental matters, it’s logical that environmental NGOs too received funding...
Factual base of the claim was while >90% of Norway’s funds were distributed by the Orban-government, a small share of it was distributed directly to NGOs
Since Norway had a strong focus on environmental matters, it’s logical that environmental NGOs too received funding...
7/
...and Fidesz dug out that some activists in such NGOs had been active in the oppositional green party before their NGO-time. They used this to establish that Norway is, in fact, financing Orban's political opposition.
(For details, see https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hungary-norway-funding-ngo-idUSKBN0ED1QW20140602)
...and Fidesz dug out that some activists in such NGOs had been active in the oppositional green party before their NGO-time. They used this to establish that Norway is, in fact, financing Orban's political opposition.
(For details, see https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hungary-norway-funding-ngo-idUSKBN0ED1QW20140602)
8/
The point is, ultimately, Janos Lazar, at that time the right hand of Orban and the 2nd most powerful figure in Hungary said, that if the HU gov can’t control 100% of the fund’s distribution, then it prefers for Hungary to not receive any Norwegian funds at all.
The point is, ultimately, Janos Lazar, at that time the right hand of Orban and the 2nd most powerful figure in Hungary said, that if the HU gov can’t control 100% of the fund’s distribution, then it prefers for Hungary to not receive any Norwegian funds at all.
9/
This surprised a lot of people at the time but again was perfectly rational.
Why?
See, Hungary still had & has residuals of a free society, such as a few free media outlets (albeit with very limited reach), laws (however skewed) and courts (even if under high pressure).
This surprised a lot of people at the time but again was perfectly rational.
Why?
See, Hungary still had & has residuals of a free society, such as a few free media outlets (albeit with very limited reach), laws (however skewed) and courts (even if under high pressure).
10/
So, even within the these absurd and skewed circumstances, the #Orban gang's thuggeries and thefts still did & do run a certain residual risk of being detected, analysed and placed within the press and the legal system.
So, even within the these absurd and skewed circumstances, the #Orban gang's thuggeries and thefts still did & do run a certain residual risk of being detected, analysed and placed within the press and the legal system.
11/
With police and state prosecutor under tight control it's improbable that any perpetrator would be sentenced to prison (as he should), but still it carries a political risk which Orban has always been keen to eliminate, understanding how these can be the ignitor of discontent
With police and state prosecutor under tight control it's improbable that any perpetrator would be sentenced to prison (as he should), but still it carries a political risk which Orban has always been keen to eliminate, understanding how these can be the ignitor of discontent
11/
However, covering these issues requires professional, e.g. legal & accounting knowledge, time and funding.
A professional investigative journalist or legal expert team of as little as 4-6 people can pose a real threat to Orban’s system, and while funding the worl of such
However, covering these issues requires professional, e.g. legal & accounting knowledge, time and funding.
A professional investigative journalist or legal expert team of as little as 4-6 people can pose a real threat to Orban’s system, and while funding the worl of such
12/
a team is too much money to be collected through grassroot or similar efforts, they are miniscule in the context of large-scale programs such as the EU- or Norway funds.
a team is too much money to be collected through grassroot or similar efforts, they are miniscule in the context of large-scale programs such as the EU- or Norway funds.
13/
That is why Orban & gang are ready to sacrifice 99% of some funds (which they can steal) in order to ensure there is no 1% that circumvents them.
There can't be any funding in the country to enable the operation of committed pros who can work on their criminal activities.
That is why Orban & gang are ready to sacrifice 99% of some funds (which they can steal) in order to ensure there is no 1% that circumvents them.
There can't be any funding in the country to enable the operation of committed pros who can work on their criminal activities.
14/
Other than that, it's of course also a question of principle (and a very conscious power tool): no one shall receive any minimum of funding without having made his/her deal with those in power, and knowing full well how far they can go in whatever they do.
Other than that, it's of course also a question of principle (and a very conscious power tool): no one shall receive any minimum of funding without having made his/her deal with those in power, and knowing full well how far they can go in whatever they do.
15/
There just can't be "islands of independence", however small.
Toeing the line shall be without alternatives; thou shall not have any hope of getting along without respecting the powerfuls' red lines.
This 'air-tightness' has indeed proved a very potent tool of power.
There just can't be "islands of independence", however small.
Toeing the line shall be without alternatives; thou shall not have any hope of getting along without respecting the powerfuls' red lines.
This 'air-tightness' has indeed proved a very potent tool of power.
16/
It is here where we get back to why many people who have observed Orban for some time say he has a totalitarian character and poses a material threat also outside Hungary.
@APosener
It is here where we get back to why many people who have observed Orban for some time say he has a totalitarian character and poses a material threat also outside Hungary.
@APosener
17/
For it is true that does not have (much) blood on his hands (yet).
But the unsatiable, pathological urge to subdue everyone and everything, and wholly destroy any- and everything that he cannot subdue (aka scorched earth), are the hallmarks of a totalitarian mindset.
For it is true that does not have (much) blood on his hands (yet).
But the unsatiable, pathological urge to subdue everyone and everything, and wholly destroy any- and everything that he cannot subdue (aka scorched earth), are the hallmarks of a totalitarian mindset.
18/
That is why #Orban must be stopped on EU-level.
Thoase who have watched him over the past years, know: this man will not stop; he'll continue to blackmail and extort as long as he is allowed to do so, and will in the meantime work on raising the price of confronting him.
That is why #Orban must be stopped on EU-level.
Thoase who have watched him over the past years, know: this man will not stop; he'll continue to blackmail and extort as long as he is allowed to do so, and will in the meantime work on raising the price of confronting him.
19/
That price is already high today (as a result of a decade of looking away) but it will be much higher still if the EU now believes it can solve the issue with a fudge equating to surrender.
END
@rdanielkelemen @luca_badini @alemannoEU @radosveta_vass @MwiWind
That price is already high today (as a result of a decade of looking away) but it will be much higher still if the EU now believes it can solve the issue with a fudge equating to surrender.
END
@rdanielkelemen @luca_badini @alemannoEU @radosveta_vass @MwiWind
