Sharon Astyk's latest FB missive, sent to me by someone else, since I refuse to have a FB account:

"Both NY and MA seem to be following a rough pattern of case rises to about 10xs their summer norm. For NY that was 600-750 cases daily, for MA, 150-250, a difference that corresponds very broadly to the population difference since MA has about 7 million people, NY 20 million."

"Both state's cases have risen 10-fold in a period of just over two months. These are states that held down their case numbers for a number of months during the summer, despite reopening, and managed to keep them roughly stable for a period of 2-3 months."

"Both of them are states that had high testing levels along with low caseloads (below 1% most of the summer, in NY often well below), strong mask mandates and strong policy enforcement and did not see a summer spike."

"What you see is that those things worked extremely well until about mid-Sept. In both states, college students returned in mid-to-late Aug + schools went back in person in late Aug/early Sept. Overall state numbers begin to rise about 3 weeks after college students return."

"I've made this point before, but the only substantive alteration that took place in this period was the reopening of schools at all levels. The weather this fall was extremely warm and entirely conducive to outdoor activities."

"In mid-Sept, when the rise began, both states were showing average daily highs in the 70s. The autumn was not unusually rainy. NYC, which opened in-person school at the end of Sept saw a later increase in its test positive rate than many NY regions that opened schools earlier."

"This is supported by research. An Oct study published in the Lancet covering data from 131 countries found closing schools+ banning public gatherings had the biggest impact on reducing covid transmission, and that reopening schools led consistently to overall increases."

"Another study from University of NC Greensboro, U Washington and Davidson college found that in Sept, 3200 covid cases that would not otherwise have happened were linked to college reopenings, with increasing numbers predicted as time went on."

"In the first study, it was found that nations that prioritized school reopening, while containing and reducing other opportunities for spread (ie, schools not bars) were better at controlling the infections, but they were seen in most nations."

"But that's kind of beside my larger point - we know the schools are driving infection rates, but also that we've already opened them and done the damage."

"Both MA + NY have increased testing dramatically in order to pick up asymptomatic positives + offer testing to students going home, essential workers and travellers. NY does as much as 10% of the entire nation's testing, which has helped keep test positive rates near/below 3%."

"Andrew Cuomo touted New York's test positive rate as one of the best in the US, which is true, and something to be proud of. But we are still seeing 10xs as many infections as this summer, BEFORE the Thanksgiving, holiday season and Christmas bumps."

"Living in states that are doing "well" in comparison can give people a sense of security. I've heard it over and over, how relieved people concerned with the virus are to live in a state that takes it seriously. And that is important."

"But every governor, town and state official has to struggle with the awkward balance between interests, and make decisions about what to do. Minimizing the impact of Covid on the economy, and in the community is something that people use numbers to do."

"But think about the difference between 'Only VT & HI have lower test positive rates than we do' + 'We have 10x the cases we had in early Sept and cases are doubling every 2 weeks.' Those are 2 different statements about the exact same numbers - both are simultaneously true."

"Albany County Contact tracing is operating 1-2 WEEKS behind infections, which makes them largely useless. Record cases in NY are occurring over a holiday, which suggests that the numbers are actually higher. These are concerning signs."

"One of the homeschool assignments I've given over the last few months is to follow covid data - any part of it, they can pick, but to track it. One day Deniece came to me and said she saw a news story that CT and TX had the most cases, and that didn't make sense to her."

"We were able to figure out that at that point, CT & TX had the fastest rate of case increases in the US. But other than that, CT & TX had almost nothing in common their case numbers or management of the virus. It was an excellent lesson in the ways that framing matter in math."

"I point this out, along with my previous post, to remind people that what is happening now is different than what happened in the spring. New York has now had its second highest case day ever (yesterday), other than the day in April where we hit 10,000 cases."

"On 11/26, w/ reduced reporting, we had 7,000 cases. In April, at NY case peak, we were doing all the things to make the numbers come down, that we had to go through a period of hell to get to lower and safer moments."

"Now, we know that the numbers are only going to rise, probably for more than six weeks.We have not been here before. There are a lot of ways to talk about where we are. Please make sure you understand and do your part."