My weekly crunch of French Covid stats shows that the 2nd wave of the epidemic is now receding rapidly. Even the average daily death rate – a very lagging indicator - has started to fall steadily (521.2 in the last 7 days, compared to 574 last week). 1/10

The number of cases confirmed daily has plunged by more than half – an average of 12,421 in the last 7 days, compared to 26,673 in the previous 7 days.(Slight worry… numbers have started to rise again in last couple of days. That may, or may not, be a blip). 2/10

The most telling of stats (imho) is the C19 population in intensive care. In the last week, that has fallen from 4,509 to 3,883. Total hospital cases have fallen from 33,231 to 28,648.
The positive rate for tests is 11.7% compared to 15% last week and over 20% 2 weeks ago.
3/10

These are the figures which persuaded the French government to announce a loosening of the 2nd lockdown (starting with all shops opening today etc). Further loosening is due on 15 December IF the stats remain encouraging. The next week’s numbers are therefore v important. 4/10

New cases will be the figure to watch. In the last 7 days they have averaged 12,421 – but there has been a definite uptick in the last three days. Averages for previous weeks 26,673 - 29,413 - 53,344 -42,985- 38,364 -27,051-20,399-16,035 -12,242.
5/10

here have been 51,914 C19 deaths in Fr since 1 March. Of these just over 20,000 came in the 2nd wave – since 1 September. This is a lower death rate than the 1st wave - partly because the frazzled but excellent Fr health service has learned how to treat the virus. HOWEVER…6/10

I took a look this week at another set of figures – the weekly stats for “all deaths in France” published by the national stats’ agency, INSEE. They (see graph) show the alarming spike of the 2nd wave deaths (yellow) above the 2018/9 levels (red/blue) since early Sept. 7/10

The gap between the 2018 and 2019 death figures and 2020 is circa 18,000 in the period 1 Sept -16 November .The number of Covid deaths officially reported in that time was “only” 14,453. So…we have a discrepancy of about 3,500 unexplained “extra” deaths. 8/10

As I reported at the time, the official French Covid death toll and “excess mortality” were remarkably in line during the First Wave. The latest INSEE figures suggest that the Second Wave stats may be somewhat less reliable.
9/10

Conclusion: France is recovering from the 2nd wave ahead of some of its neighbours. The next couple of weeks, as lockdown eases, will be crucial.
10/10