ahead of their huge showdown with Colts for AFC South supremacy, let's talk Titans increasing shift toward the run over their last 5 games...

despite playing almost nothing but top-7 run defenses...

and its role in how an undefeated 5-0 team dropped to 2-3 in their next 5 games
in their first 5 games, the Titans played an top-10 easiest schedule of run defenses

they went 52% run on first half early downs

that was the 6th highest run rate in the NFL

but it was nearly equal to their run rate in 2019

they trailed at half in only 1 of 5 games & went 5-0
over their last 5 games, the Titans played, BY FAR, the toughest schedule of run defenses (PIT, CHI, IND, BAL)

despite the ridiculously difficult schedule of run defenses...

the Titans shifted from 52% run on these first half early downs up to 62% run!

#1 most run-heavy by far
not surprisingly against this brutal schedule of run defenses, these early down runs have delivered below average production in almost every key metric

and as a result they've fallen into holes

previously undefeated, they've trailed in 3 of their last 5 games at halftime
dramatically shifting towards the run against great run defenses, the Titans went from:

up by 5.6 ppg @ halftime first 5 games
down by 3.4 ppg @ halftime last 5 games

here's their first half early down run rate by week, via this page you can customize:

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/single-team-weekly-run-pass-ratios--off-.html
the Titans decision to go far more run heavy on early downs in the first half hasn't helped them

they play just one more game against a top run defense this season:

Sunday at the Colts

after that's, it's bottom-half run defenses for 5 straight weeks to close the season
Derrick Henry will eat over the final 5 weeks

but is force feeding him against Indy's top-5 run defense optimal?

the Titans lost 4 of their last 5 to the Colts w a run-heavy strategy

we just saw Aaron Rodgers go 13/16 for 10.0 YPA & 3 TDs on first half early downs v Indy's D
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