Do recent price/rent increases in Tokyo mean that housing supply has little/no effect? Well, no - if anything it's the opposite, as the last five years have seen unprecedentedly slow supply growth in Tokyo. 1/5 https://twitter.com/DrCameronMurray/status/1332451569468489728

The number of dwellings in Tokyo grew at its slowest post-war rate in 2013-18, and only slightly more than the household population. Incomes rose during this period so it's no surprise that prices and rents did too.

Let's zoom out on the price trends and see what happened when Tokyo was building much more. Prices fell *a lot* from 1994 (the start of this data) to 2004, were then stable for another decade and have only risen noticeably since 2013. https://www.reinet.or.jp/pdf/fudoukenjutakuhyouka/LatestRelease20201124_E.pdf 3/5

We only have rents data since 2006 but it is a similar story: growth since 2012/13 but still only 25% higher than in 2006 (compared to 41% in London). https://www.kantei.ne.jp/report/T202010.pdf

Here is the closest thing to comparable London/Tokyo house price trends, from Hypostat. Snce 2008 London prices have risen 67%, Tokyo prices just 3%. https://hypo.org/app/uploads/sites/3/2020/11/HYPOSTAT-2020-FINAL.pdf 5/5