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Read the article twice and took notes - things I haven't done long time in past cause it needed to be responded. While it will entice appreciation from the usual corners, it is so much lacking in data that it beleaguered me. 1/n https://twitter.com/andymukherjee70/status/1332589874973528065
First thing the author should do is clearly state his political affiliation cause in the wide history of India since independence, somehow ABV doesn't get even a mention although there is ref to coalition govt of 90s of Devegowda and Gujral !! 2/n
Now coming to the essay, starts of with a snarky comment on one data point of per capita income of Bangladesh. Yes the country has done well, but a person who writes on economy wouldn't base it on one data point and that too w/o any evaluation of its sweat shops 3/n
Institutions have become arbitrary and decayed - but when? When Rockstar in SC doesn't give favorable judgements or when EVMs don't get hacked in Punjab / Chattisgarh or when RBI doesn't leave it's arrogance in raising rates after demo / gst? More on this later.. 4/n
Animal spirits have sucked out of all but few handful firms.. how is this conclusion arrived at? Any look into new Highway construction firms / defense industries / companies who applied for PLI licenses in Pharma, Electronics etc? 6/n
Zombie businesses at the top of debt pile - seems time travel here. Refers Ashish Gupta of '12 but not his Q2 20 report where he says credit quality is the best in last 5 years (seems more to attack only one group .. happens later as well in the essay).. 7/n
But doesn't talk about the status of actual zombie firms who got loans for a corrupt PPP system under phone banking from MoF which had a rockstar CEA who was sleeping at the wheel ! 8/n
Attack on Atmanirbhar policy - for the first time a serious attempt is made to make India hub of global mfg which we missed - all PLI applicants are for servicing India alone? Everyone is going to be plugged in as 2nd supplier so to speak 9/n
This is backed by labour reforms, slashing of tax rates, removal of odius laws of bygone era, improvement in competitive standing of India to avoid making our demographic dividend bane instead of boon - essay is despondent on this analysis to compare it to Bombay Club.. 10/n
Uses terms like India is turning inward without offering one example - even the positives of the government are caveated saying 'some' reforms like farm and labour or physical infra 'delivered to a point' - hard to miss the bias 11/n
Banks were nationalised in 70s and here we have LVB sold to foreigner DBS !! Air India and BPCL, both massively affected structurally yet BPSL divestment is going on with EoIs in place - yes they should do more but dishonest to say Govt not doing 12/n
Reading the article, doesn't come as a surprise that PVNR isn't mentioned but MMS gets noted for 90s liberalisation but doesn't get any flak for the scam of Harshad Mehta just like another CEA left off for the role in corruption of PPP later in UPA II.. 13/n
Same craftiness is reflected in how the essay reads .. perils of PPP mentioned before 2004-14 period of UPA, Economic power in fewer hands when talking about entrepreneurs who swindled are now going to jail.. what gives? 14/n
Inevitable Gujarat Model reference comes in with the same critics but no data point that is publicly available that it improved social stats as well - lower than best in the country - but tremendous improvement, similarly Haryana doesn't get a mention.. How and Why??..15/n
Worse comes when author becomes Yogendra Yadav cum Hillary Clinton almost calling N Indians for them to emulate their 'better governed' S Indian brethren who haven't fallen for Modi - but who? Kerela / AP / Tel / Oris / TN or Karnataka. It's a shocking analogy 16/n
Handling of Corona epidemic.. again so desirous of putting GoI down that only compares absolute cases with US without per capita comparison both in cases / deaths .. which developed country fared better one might wonder.. 17/n
But we would have read it if Author was serious about evaluation but instead we got childish analysis to bring in lighting diyas / thalis etc which lo behold, even UK did to encourage NHS workers and show solidarity but the brown sahib mindset doesn't leave wherever u stay.. 18/n
Demon and GST are criticised but RBI governor especially goes scot free for its arrogant policy of showing independence that it raised interest rates to target inflation which never materialized due to their faulty models !! They are in fact made martyrs .. 19/n
However, the worst is about sermons on demand will never come back in post the 1st quarter .. should I give benefit of not knowing Q2 GDP figure recently released? May be one still can inspite of the evidence to the contrary .. 20/n
But to ignore GST collections / Auto Sales / Cement and Steel production / Power Consumption / FasTags usage in Q2 over Q1 would amount to serious introspection to the point being made - may be sound cautious but judgement on no demand sounds poor 21/n
Mentioning of removal of Socialist and Secular words from Constitution is again a leading statement same in the line of Art 370 removal but sad part is there is no mention of how were they brought in and the rationale of removal being is to target only Muslim dom. state .. 22/n
If the author was honest, he would have linked the investor interest in solar / wind to GOI policy and push including being the only one to meet and honor Paris Accords - Same Gujarat announced no Coal fired power plants y'day.. 23/n
There is a lot to criticize the govt especially on economic front but can't do that with motherhood statements and emotional blackmail, has to be balanced and backed by data - none in the essay 24/n
India has changed just like Indian cricket team and for the better - it's not Delhi & Mumbai alone anymore. Ganguly wasnt liked by old mandarins of Bombay Club equivalent but is now enamored after Kohli. End. 25/n
