I’ve seen lots of commentators this week saying that there hasn’t been an analysis comparing wider health (eg mental health) and economic impacts of “lockdowns”.

There actually has been such analysis.

You can read it here https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918738/S0650_Direct_and_Indirect_Impacts_of_COVID-19_on_Excess_Deaths_and_Morbidity.pdf

The work looked at Direct and Indirect Impacts of COVID-19 on Excess Deaths and Morbidity in four areas:

1. Health impacts from contracting COVID-19
2. Health outcomes for COVID-19 worsened because of lack of NHS critical care capacity

3. Health impacts from changes to health and social care made in order to respond to COVID-19
4. Health impacts from factors affecting the wider population, both from social distancing measures and the economic impacts increasing deprivation.

Here’s an @ONS summary of this very detailed analysis: https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/estimatingtheimpactsofcoronavirusonenglandsmortalityandmorbidity

“Direct COVID-19 deaths account for the majority of all excess deaths; approximately 65,000 excess deaths are estimated as a result of contracting COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.”

“There are no deaths of COVID-19 patients estimated to be the result of receiving lower quality care because of NHS critical care capacity being breached; this is because it is judged that critical care capacity has not been breached to date.”

“Approximately 16,000 excess deaths are estimated because of changes in emergency care and social care within a year from March 2020”

“Between March 2020 and March 2021, the wider impacts of social distancing measures are estimated to reduce mortality, resulting in 7,000 fewer deaths than expected”

“the main cause of this change is less air pollution early in the outbreak, though the results of that improvement to air quality are expected to actually occur over the longer term.”

“The negative health impacts of social distancing amount to a loss of 88,000 QALYs up to March 2021, so mortality improves over this period but health worsens”

“the main causes of this are increases in: depression; musculoskeletal disorders, resulting from more people working from home without suitable equipment; and domestic abuse.”

And the summary: “While these negative health impacts of lockdown exceed the impacts of COVID-19 directly, they are much smaller than the negative impacts estimated for a scenario in which these measures are not in place;”

“without these mitigations, the impact of direct COVID-19 deaths alone on both mortality and morbidity would be much higher – an estimated 439,000 excess deaths resulting from COVID-19, and 3,000,000 QALYs lost.”