This is the most personal thing I’ve ever written. A lot of you won’t share my pessimism. That’s fine. I, too, swing between blinding hope and crushing despair. But how about a “behind-the-scenes”? A short thread to set the context for this long piece? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-india-and-modi-are-losing-china-battle/

We like to think it was our merit and hard work, but luck and timing played a huge role in expanding the opportunity set for my generation of Indians. Just contrast the dramatically different directions the country took after the ‘66 devaluation and the ‘91 devaluation.

Will the post-Covid world be as receptive? The ‘90s West had slain communism, defeated high inflation. They wanted to keep their consumer boom going. The likes of Jack Welch and John Reed wanted Indians to join the game of global labor arbitrage. But now? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-india-and-modi-are-losing-china-battle/

A pro-business rather than a pro-market approach is India’s default policy option, not surprising given opaque financing of ever-costlier elections. But when a bulk of the business class is inert, as is the case now, pro-business means large vertical and horizontal monopolies.

The elite will thrive; it always does. But what about youngsters in small towns and cities, those who don’t have stable family incomes, assets or networks? In other words, people of my background or those who’re even less fortunate. (I can’t deny my Hindu upper-caste privilege)

I will end here. Some of you are thanking me for giving voice to your feelings. A childhood friend wrote from the U.S., saying he hopes me to be proved wrong. I hope so, too. For I’m vested in India’s success — not as a nationalist, but as a patriot. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-india-and-modi-are-losing-china-battle/