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Petrotal: Interest is now picking up for the company again, I will go through some of the bullish catalysts that I see going forward in this thread. (1/6) #ptal
Higher oil price cause Petrotals balance sheet to improve by 2m$ for every $ oil goes up, this is coming from the ~2m barrels of oil in pipeline that waits for final sales settlement. At 52$ oil, the previous 42m liability is down to zero. (2/6) #ptal
Low Sulphur heavy oil is attractive on the market. Petrotals netback calculation for ONP sales assume 4$ discount vs. Brent. Latest sale was at 1.2$ discount. At 10k bopd this gives additional 10m$ net profit per annum. (3/6) #ptal
Facilities can handle 16-18k bopd, this will enable Petrotal to ramp up to this level once pipeline is back and they start to drill again in 2021. At Brent 50$ and 16k bopd, monthly netback from production would be 12m$. (4/6) #ptal
Reserves are very likely to continue to increase, 2019 update showed an increase of 20% for 2P to 48m, a gradually increase towards 80m reserves are likely given current low assumption on recovery rate. (5/6) #ptal
Mcap is now at 110m$, which value 2P reserve at just 2.3$ per barrel. If 3P case materialize valuation is just 1.4$ per barrel. Tax losses (310m$) and low investment cost 8$ per barrel gives a very high profitability as most of the netbacks filters to net profit. (6/6) #ptal
