The Third Circuit just ruled on the Trump campaign's challenge in Pennsylvania
3-0 loss, opinion from three Republican-appointed judges, and written by the lone Trump-appointed judge, that has the campaign losing on basically every important point
https://www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Trump.pdf
3-0 loss, opinion from three Republican-appointed judges, and written by the lone Trump-appointed judge, that has the campaign losing on basically every important point
https://www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Trump.pdf
Campaign tried to appeal on the narrowest ground possible - whether the district court should have let them amend their complaint a second time
Leave to amend should be granted liberally
But the 3rd Circuit wasn't persuaded
Leave to amend should be granted liberally
But the 3rd Circuit wasn't persuaded
Reason one why the Campaign lost - undue delay
The campaign had stressed the need to resolve the litigation by the 23rd because that was the certification deadline
Bibas writes that it can't turn around and demand time to fix its complaint now at this late date
The campaign had stressed the need to resolve the litigation by the 23rd because that was the certification deadline
Bibas writes that it can't turn around and demand time to fix its complaint now at this late date
Reason two why the Campaign lost - amending the complaint would have been futile
Basically - Bibas writes that it was simply impossible for the campaign to prevail, that nothing they alleged would have even stated a claim for relief
Basically - Bibas writes that it was simply impossible for the campaign to prevail, that nothing they alleged would have even stated a claim for relief
I'll get to this more at the end - but the Supreme Court is going to deny certiorari
This isn't a close appeal https://twitter.com/MikeDGarrison1/status/1332398457257070592?s=20
This isn't a close appeal https://twitter.com/MikeDGarrison1/status/1332398457257070592?s=20
Back to the analysis - Bibas states that even if the Campaign's proposed amendments were added to the complaint, it still wouldn't meet the Twombly/Iqbal standard of "stat[ing] a claim to relief that is plausible on its face"
Bibas also notes that the campaign has litigated and lost most of their arguments at the state level
Third big problem: the complaint tries to make an equal protection claim, but never alleges that the Trump campaign was treated differently from the Biden campaign, only that different counties handled things differently
Bibas explains that's not enough
Bibas explains that's not enough
Finally, Bibas notes the the relief proposed - stopping certification - is unprecedented, especially given that the campaign explicitly disclaimed allegations of fraud
In conclusion - this is an opinion that basically ends the litigation
The campaign can go to the Supreme Court, but it's like 99% chance that they will simply deny cert and not hear the case after an opinion like this
The campaign can go to the Supreme Court, but it's like 99% chance that they will simply deny cert and not hear the case after an opinion like this
Why? Because the opinion has the campaign losing on so many alternative grounds
The Supreme Court would need to be persuaded that the 3rd circuit was wrong on BOTH timeliness and on the merits of the underlying claims
Don't see that happening, Bibas' analysis looks right to me
The Supreme Court would need to be persuaded that the 3rd circuit was wrong on BOTH timeliness and on the merits of the underlying claims
Don't see that happening, Bibas' analysis looks right to me
People seem to think I'm happy about this outcome
I'm not, I would love to be wrong
But I'm also a lawyer, and I'm not here to bullshit you https://twitter.com/RNS_USA/status/1332400346308763648?s=20
I'm not, I would love to be wrong
But I'm also a lawyer, and I'm not here to bullshit you https://twitter.com/RNS_USA/status/1332400346308763648?s=20