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I try to share my thoughts over the offseason, but I largely don’t do a deep dive into my process. I’ll do that here
I try to share my thoughts over the offseason, but I largely don’t do a deep dive into my process. I’ll do that here
1. Roster construction isn’t an area to be cute and differentiate, it’s an area to get right.
In any average 12 person league, ~4-6 teams are dead from roster construction alone. Here’s how to attack:
3/5/9/3 is my core.
3/6/8/3 works
3/5/10/2 or 3/6/9/2 works with Kelce
In any average 12 person league, ~4-6 teams are dead from roster construction alone. Here’s how to attack:
3/5/9/3 is my core.
3/6/8/3 works
3/5/10/2 or 3/6/9/2 works with Kelce
You can have *some* flexibility here based on what position you draft, and how early.
I normally try to lock up a high volume RB in round 1. Then I’ll likely take a 2019 Kareem Hunt profile in the 6th/7th. After that, I’m filling out RB with late round pass catching RBs
I normally try to lock up a high volume RB in round 1. Then I’ll likely take a 2019 Kareem Hunt profile in the 6th/7th. After that, I’m filling out RB with late round pass catching RBs
Its hard to hit on breakout RBs. The later you go, the less value they add vs. a WR
By locking up an RB1 + RB2 with upside + 3 late round “pass catching” RB (Hines, Gibson, etc.), you can go 8-10 WRs and get more bites at the apple of hitting a higher probability breakout there
By locking up an RB1 + RB2 with upside + 3 late round “pass catching” RB (Hines, Gibson, etc.), you can go 8-10 WRs and get more bites at the apple of hitting a higher probability breakout there
At WR, you want a high volume of players for a few reasons. First, you need to start the most of the position (3 vs. 2/1). Second, you likely want to fill your flex with WRs (mid and late round WRs vs. their RB counterparts are far superior).
3rd, the breakout profiles are more obvious + plentiful at WR. It’s a lot easier to draft a WR that far outproduces their ADP. More WRs see the field than any other position, & by seeing the field more they have chances to play themselves into ++ roles by + performance (Claypool)
4th, think about the WRs available late vs. RBs. late WRs actually have the chance to contribute multiple starting weeks per year without an injury because they’re playing 60%+ of the time. 18th-20th round RBs are 2nd/3rd stringers on the bench
As far as always going 3QB, there used to be an argument for 2QB before most sites added 2 extra rounds. Not anymore.
Most volatile and random of the positions. Huge breakouts routinely come from the late rounds. Real life bad QBs can have huge outlier fantasy football years
Most volatile and random of the positions. Huge breakouts routinely come from the late rounds. Real life bad QBs can have huge outlier fantasy football years
Grab 3 in that 10th-15th range, give yourself a better % chance to capitalize on the randomness of the position and hit on big time breakouts. Best case is you hit on a top 5-10 QB, get another that has some big weeks but is volatile, and the 3rd is a bust. Doesn’t matter
2. Draft efficient 2nd year WRs
The most common year for WRs to break out is year 2. Especially if they were great as rookies.
Players like McLaurin and Diontae were two of the most obvious and profitable breakouts of all time. Fantastic in shitty situations.
The most common year for WRs to break out is year 2. Especially if they were great as rookies.
Players like McLaurin and Diontae were two of the most obvious and profitable breakouts of all time. Fantastic in shitty situations.
Further, they were overshadowed by the higher profile breakouts. AJB and Metcalf stole the headlines as rookies. They were amazing picks this year. But you had to pay up for it.
The key is looking deeper, and finding the cheap, underhyped guys before they get the hype https://twitter.com/ff_ryanb/status/1211748448648794115
The key is looking deeper, and finding the cheap, underhyped guys before they get the hype https://twitter.com/ff_ryanb/status/1211748448648794115
3. Draft an elite TE
You can have confidence in your ability to hit on late round TEs. Chances are you’re going to be wrong, though.
TE is a position that sees the least breakouts, and often the most random breakouts. There normally aren’t any Terry Mclaurins at TE.
You can have confidence in your ability to hit on late round TEs. Chances are you’re going to be wrong, though.
TE is a position that sees the least breakouts, and often the most random breakouts. There normally aren’t any Terry Mclaurins at TE.
You can throw 3 darts at TE, and maybe one will hit like the QB situation we talked about. Or maybe they’ll alternate “big” weeks (aka 4-40-1) because they scored a TD, which is pretty random.
this isn’t moving the needle vs. the team with a WR1 at their TE spot
this isn’t moving the needle vs. the team with a WR1 at their TE spot
Grabbing an elite TE early lets you devote your remaining picks towards positions that have a much greater % chance of yielding a value adding breakout. And RB and WR have a far better shot of filling your flex in non-TE prem than a TE or similar ADP does.
Not to mention the whole WR1 at the TE spot thing. Kelce had no business going in the 2nd this year. He won’t go in the second next year. But Kittle will, he might even go in the 3rd. Don’t mess this up again.
4. Recognize your personal strengths, and play to them
I struggle with my early round picks every year. Always draft some busts, and then always have a few get hurt. But I always hit on a high % of mid-late round breakouts. By knowing this, I can set myself up for success
I struggle with my early round picks every year. Always draft some busts, and then always have a few get hurt. But I always hit on a high % of mid-late round breakouts. By knowing this, I can set myself up for success
I pick maybe a few players I just don’t have any interest in drafting in the early rounds (Zeke), but I largely try to defer to ADP in round 1 and maybe round 2 to an extent. These guys go early for a reason. But statistically, plenty will bust.
I don’t want to put myself in a spot to fail because I went hard in on a round 1 guy at 40% and he busted. Especially when that’s not my strength
If I’m going to make a high conviction % play, it’s in the mid/late rounds (Diontae, McLaurin, Fuller, etc). Or it’s Ekeler (
)
If I’m going to make a high conviction % play, it’s in the mid/late rounds (Diontae, McLaurin, Fuller, etc). Or it’s Ekeler (
)
5. Contest selection
This is probably the first time we have 5+ sites to play on. Find what rules play to your strengths and find the weakest competition and attack it.
I never do well with 0.5 ppr. So, I didn’t play on any sites that weren’t full PPR this year
This is probably the first time we have 5+ sites to play on. Find what rules play to your strengths and find the weakest competition and attack it.
I never do well with 0.5 ppr. So, I didn’t play on any sites that weren’t full PPR this year
Further, I picked the places I thought were the softest competition and attacked them.
The season isn’t over yet, but from a current ROI perspective, the sites I thought were softest at the time have almost played out in that order:
1. DK (143%)
2. NFC (93%)
3. Drafters (98%)
The season isn’t over yet, but from a current ROI perspective, the sites I thought were softest at the time have almost played out in that order:
1. DK (143%)
2. NFC (93%)
3. Drafters (98%)
I know this is long, and I don’t really care if you read it or not.
I skip long threads myself. But i figured this stuff might be helpful for you to reference/read whether you’ve never played best ball before or are someone who loves it. It’s an exciting time for the format
I skip long threads myself. But i figured this stuff might be helpful for you to reference/read whether you’ve never played best ball before or are someone who loves it. It’s an exciting time for the format
And this isn’t necessarily a be all, end all. There are other things I do and pay attention to as well. But these are the most important things to focus on imo.
I think if you get these things right as a baseline, you will do very, very well over time
I think if you get these things right as a baseline, you will do very, very well over time
Also, I meant *2020* Kareem Hunt, here. 2019 Hunt was a horrible best ball pick even if it kind of worked out. I’m sorry for my typo https://twitter.com/ff_ryanb/status/1332394188491644928
