Why did Dems lose at least 12 House seats -- despite Biden getting 80 million votes against Trump and winning the popular vote by as much as 7 million?

I had a great chat with @Redistrict about what really happened. Some surprises you won't want to miss: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/27/why-did-democrats-bleed-house-seats-top-analyst-offers-surprising-answers/

A few highlights from our talk. First, massive Trump base turnout lifted downballot Republican congressional candidates in surprising ways: They could pocket that turnout while winning anti-Trump swing voters on top of it.

(cc @DamonLinker @lkatfield)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/27/why-did-democrats-bleed-house-seats-top-analyst-offers-surprising-answers/

What's more, it's not clear how much of an impact Democrats' woes among blue collar whites hurt them down-ballot. It's complicated.

Fascinating suggestions from @Redistrict on this:

(citing @EricLevitz and @davidshor)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/27/why-did-democrats-bleed-house-seats-top-analyst-offers-surprising-answers/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/27/why-did-democrats-bleed-house-seats-top-analyst-offers-surprising-answers/

Also interesting: @AOC and "the Squad" aren't really to blame for Dem downballot losses.

More important, says @Redistrict, is Dem candidates didn't do enough to communicate *their own* stances on policing.

Great anecdote about a Biden pollster here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/27/why-did-democrats-bleed-house-seats-top-analyst-offers-surprising-answers/

Finally, the 2022 midterms could defy expectations, for hidden reasons:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/27/why-did-democrats-bleed-house-seats-top-analyst-offers-surprising-answers/

Relatedly, here's a typically great @RonBrownstein analysis that develops the fundamental points as to why Trump was not a liability for downballot Rs. With @mollyereynolds and @LPDonovan:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/bidens-popular-vote-win-didnt-help-house-democrats/617211/?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4