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1 Fakhrizadeh was the captain of Iran’s nuclear program as Soleimani was the captain of Iran’s regional activities. Iran’s regional/nuclear ambitions don't end after their deaths, but the absence of their leadership and institutional memory will be felt. https://twitter.com/EnglishFars/status/1332343002862379008?s=20
2 Tehran has already blamed Israel, the most likely culprit. But if initial news reports prove correct that he was killed by suicide attackers, speculation may turn to Sunni radicals rather than the Mossad. https://twitter.com/Reza_Khaasteh/status/1332314261943689218?s=20
3 The killing of Soleimani triggered fears of WWIII, but Tehran's reaction is often restrained but drawn out. Revenge is a dish best served cold, and they may choose to exact that revenge over a period of months/years where/when we don't expect it https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/14/world/middleeast/israeli-embassy-officials-attacked-in-india-and-georgia.html
4 That said, Iran's attempts to avenge the killing of its nuclear scientists in 2013 were mostly unsuccessful. One attempted Iranian assassin who accidentally blew off his own legs in Thailand was just freed this week in a hostage trade https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1331637202007298049?s=20
5 As @GEsfandiari correctly points out, Iran will have to explain why it imprisons innocent academics and environmentalists on charges of being Israeli agents, but fails to protect its top nuclear scientist whom Israel has long sought to assassinate. https://twitter.com/GEsfandiari/status/1332342746523295744?s=20
6 The full impact of Fakhrizadeh's death will likely take months if not years to appreciate. Those who truly understood his precise day-to-day role in Iran's nuclear activities don't talk, and those who talk don't know. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390444230504577615971688458892
7 I suspect the reaction in Washington is mixed. Incoming State Department diplomats may well fear this damages the cause of US-Iran diplomacy and a potential return to the JCPOA, while folks at the Pentagon/CIA may believe this was a tough blow to a formidable adversary.
