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What is the economic cost of not going to #ZeroCOVID?
Some countries are enjoying normal life, minimal restrictions except limitations on international travel. Domestic economies are thriving and even tourism benefits from local travel.
Let’s look at several reports:
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Some countries are enjoying normal life, minimal restrictions except limitations on international travel. Domestic economies are thriving and even tourism benefits from local travel.
Let’s look at several reports:
1/
Boston Consulting Group Report
“the sooner a country can limit the spread of the virus…the shorter the period that the economy will be frozen, and the sooner people can get back to work”
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1320791484447285249?s=20
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“the sooner a country can limit the spread of the virus…the shorter the period that the economy will be frozen, and the sooner people can get back to work”
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1320791484447285249?s=20
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International Monetary Fund Report
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1315642546215948288?s=20
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https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1315642546215948288?s=20
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McKinsey Report #1
Ending lockdowns alone won’t restore confidence or growth. Only when the novel coronavirus is under control will economic growth resume.
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https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/covid-19-saving-thousands-of-lives-and-trillions-in-livelihoods
Ending lockdowns alone won’t restore confidence or growth. Only when the novel coronavirus is under control will economic growth resume.
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https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/covid-19-saving-thousands-of-lives-and-trillions-in-livelihoods
McKinsey Report #2
"Countries that focused on keeping virus spread near zero got their economies moving faster than others"
5/ https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-leading-through-the-crisis/charting-the-path-to-the-next-normal/countries-that-focused-on-keeping-virus-spread-near-zero-got-their-economies-moving-faster-than-others#
"Countries that focused on keeping virus spread near zero got their economies moving faster than others"
5/ https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-leading-through-the-crisis/charting-the-path-to-the-next-normal/countries-that-focused-on-keeping-virus-spread-near-zero-got-their-economies-moving-faster-than-others#
Our analytic study of the outbreak dynamics shows a very robust result:
Short term investment gives long term gain.
Theory and data agree, it is not accidental that it is obvious that countries that have suppressed the outbreak are doing well.
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/papers/minimizing-economic-costs-for-covid-19
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Short term investment gives long term gain.
Theory and data agree, it is not accidental that it is obvious that countries that have suppressed the outbreak are doing well.
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/papers/minimizing-economic-costs-for-covid-19
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Financial times: "New Zealand, Inc. reaps benefit of hard and fast Covid lockdown"
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https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1326594585305505795?s=20
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https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1326594585305505795?s=20
New Zealand Response was applauded by business leaders as “Best in the World”
Makes a lot of sense when it is understood, and the vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this.
8/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/new-zealands-covid-19-response-the-best-in-the-world-say-global-business-leaders
Makes a lot of sense when it is understood, and the vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this.
8/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/new-zealands-covid-19-response-the-best-in-the-world-say-global-business-leaders
Here is a letter from a business group in Australia to the government to influence their policies. It worked!
https://twitter.com/JosephNWalker/status/1242057927231287303?s=20
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https://twitter.com/JosephNWalker/status/1242057927231287303?s=20
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Epidemiologist and Economist:
"To save lives and the economy, we need another lockdown.
Dr. Osterholm, Director Center for Infectious Disease, University of Minnesota.
Mr. Kashkari, President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown-unemployment-death.html
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"To save lives and the economy, we need another lockdown.
Dr. Osterholm, Director Center for Infectious Disease, University of Minnesota.
Mr. Kashkari, President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown-unemployment-death.html
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It is always better to act sooner than later.
Economic rational behavior: If you are willing to lock down for a number of cases, you should also be willing to lockdown for fewer cases, the cost is always lower.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1307059336175288321?s=20…
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Economic rational behavior: If you are willing to lock down for a number of cases, you should also be willing to lockdown for fewer cases, the cost is always lower.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1307059336175288321?s=20…
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Data: No tradeoff between health and economics.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1306583936374538242?s=20…
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https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1306583936374538242?s=20…
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Research shows many people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital (surprise!) so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID
"COVID-19 Doesn’t Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs" National Bureau of Economic Research
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https://doi.org/10.3386/w27264
"COVID-19 Doesn’t Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs" National Bureau of Economic Research
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https://doi.org/10.3386/w27264
More research showing people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID
Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research
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https://doi.org/10.3386/w27432
Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research
14/
https://doi.org/10.3386/w27432
Stopping COVID means the economy recovers because NORMAL life is restored
The vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this
The business community, including the most vulnerable businesses, should push hardest for elimination
Asking for support is OK
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The vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this
The business community, including the most vulnerable businesses, should push hardest for elimination
Asking for support is OK
15/
The time it takes is important to know
From experience, going all out, it takes 3-4 weeks to reduce cases/day by 100X
From 100,000 to 1,000
From 1,000 to 10
Substantial drop
2-3 more weeks and the country can open up
This has been done
Needed: Leadership & cooperation
From experience, going all out, it takes 3-4 weeks to reduce cases/day by 100X
From 100,000 to 1,000
From 1,000 to 10
Substantial drop
2-3 more weeks and the country can open up
This has been done
Needed: Leadership & cooperation
Podcast for investors and executives
Podcast home link
https://macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/ep-39-professor-yaneer-bar-yam-on-ending-covid-vaccine-complacency-and-business-responsibility/
DIrect link to listen to the podcast
https://macrohive.com
Look below the graphic on the upper left. Podcast itself begins at 3:48
Podcast home link
https://macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/ep-39-professor-yaneer-bar-yam-on-ending-covid-vaccine-complacency-and-business-responsibility/
DIrect link to listen to the podcast
https://macrohive.com
Look below the graphic on the upper left. Podcast itself begins at 3:48
Our paper on lowest-cost pandemic conditions showing the lowest cost is for fewest cases.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1357394268592168962?s=20
#ZeroCovid
Links for pdf
https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.04758
https://necsi.edu/lowest-cost-virus-suppression…
https://endcoronavirus.org/papers/lowest-cost-virus-suppression
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1357394268592168962?s=20
#ZeroCovid
Links for pdf
https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.04758
https://necsi.edu/lowest-cost-virus-suppression…
https://endcoronavirus.org/papers/lowest-cost-virus-suppression
