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Government have finally published a policy paper on transmission evidence in hospitality. My initial thoughts as follows:
- Evidence centres on a number of very isolated cases to prove why widespread restriction needed (tenuous at best)
- Evidence centres on a number of very isolated cases to prove why widespread restriction needed (tenuous at best)
- No evidence, only conjecture to back up statement 'the disinhibitory effects of alcohol are likely to exacerbate difficulties with social distancing.' - which are dealt with by Covid secure measures. Landlords have policed this, heavily.
- Nothing in any of the attached justifies why a substantial meal is required in tier 2, or why a meal lowers risk
- Evidence suggests that nightclubs seem to be riskier than pubs, and of course remain shut.
- Evidence from Hong Kong includes from 'a (singular) wedding'.
- Evidence suggests that nightclubs seem to be riskier than pubs, and of course remain shut.
- Evidence from Hong Kong includes from 'a (singular) wedding'.
Overall, there is nothing here which justifies why stronger tier 2/3 are required, or justified.
No analysis of the negative externalities of new tier 2/3 on mental health of the nation, or of hospitality workers, which holisticly, it must do in order to balance the policy.
No analysis of the negative externalities of new tier 2/3 on mental health of the nation, or of hospitality workers, which holisticly, it must do in order to balance the policy.
It seems to rely upon the tenuous correlation between tier 3/3+ on hospitality and R rate falling below 1. But we need to see evidence of R rate falling because it is caused by, not simply correlated with. Other factors will be more attributable to R rate falling.
Transmission rates over the summer during Eat Out to Help out remained low. When schools went back - R rate shot up. What about that correlation, which is far clearer?
Take a look for yourselves (and help me pick it apart): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/transmission-risk-in-the-hospitality-sector/transmission-risk-in-the-hospitality-sector
Perhaps my favourite bit is the line which says "(transmission) dynamics are greatly influenced by socioeconomic factors (including job insecurity and poverty)" perhaps the don't see the irony...
