The Pol, Hu EU disagreement isn't your usual bust up, where countries disagree & sophisticated compromise machine in Bxl works it all out. This is a fundamental, ideological & existential conflict for Hu & Orban's system, & an internal conflict for Pol Govt 1/
Their strategy: get €bn via an provisional or emergency standalone budget & keep negotiating over Rule of Law next year while South bleeds won't work. Macron doesn't want to break with Merkel, but he'll push for IG treaty at 25 if no deal by Dec. Imp: the Chancellery will too 2/
IG treaty would be bad outcome for EU. Lots of pol, technical, legal hurdles & econ downsides. Pol & Hu get no €RRF, but would still be subject to RoL. This isn't just “enhanced co-operation“ as some say; it would be a watershed moment for EU - a substantial & damaging split 3/
My latest piece, exploring this conflict & it's connection to Brexit is below. EU leaders meet in Dec is gearing up to be quite something

ENDS https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-rule-of-law-fight-hard-brexit/
Europe: Caught between a rule-of-law fight and a hard Brexit

Failure to solve twin crises could spell political and economic disaster.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-rule-of-law-fight-hard-brexit/
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