1/ Now that countries are doing mass testing, we can see what happens when lockdowns are introduced. In France, for example, lockdown started on 30 Oct and cases peaked 8 days later before falling sharply.

2/ In Czechia, lockdown started on 22 Oct, cases peaked 6 days later and came down, slowly at first and then rapidly.

3/ In Israel, lockdown started on Sept 18, was toughened up on Sept 25 and cases started falling after Oct 3.

4/ In Wales, the "firebreak" began on 23 Oct and cases started falling seven days later, although this wasn't immediately obvious at the time.

5/ This isn't an iron law. Belgium and Ireland introduced lockdowns at or after the peak, but it is common, logical and entirely predictable. There is a lag of a week or so between people being infected and testing positive.

6/ It's the same story in England. Lockdown started on 5 Nov and cases started falling, quite steeply, a week later.

7/ The lag means that results show up slowly, but it also means that the decline in reported cases continues for a week or so after the lockdown ends. The blue line above only shows 9 days of decline, but it should fall for at least another 18 days, ie. to quite a low level.

8/ An epidemiologist could make a reasonable prediction of how low rates will go by the end of lockdown based on the existing trend and the experience of other countries.

9/ So why is the government basing the tiers on what the situation was on Nov 19th which, in practice is the situation on Nov 12th - just one week into lockdown?

10/ It can't be because SAGE don't like predictive modelling. They LOVE predictive modelling, but apparently only when there's no good news to predict.

11/ Here's SAGE's John Edmunds telling us not to expect to go down a tier any time soon because he has to wait for the data to come in. No modelling this one, eh John?

12/ Making predictions seems to be fine if it deprives us of liberty, but is unthinkable when it comes to restoring it. The common denominator is the pathological desire of government scientists to maintain lockdowns and near-lockdowns indefinitely.