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December Questions (Thread):
Can equities keep rallying into year end?
- I know markets are forward looking
- I know 'its the liquidity, stupid'
But how long can markets confidently visualise a future that might not exist?
Can equities keep rallying into year end?
- I know markets are forward looking
- I know 'its the liquidity, stupid'
But how long can markets confidently visualise a future that might not exist?
I'm not talking about 'now'.
Everyone expected economic data to slow as we moved from Autumn to Winter.
I'm talking about the roaring 20's analogies like this (via Refinitiv & @themarketear )
Everyone expected economic data to slow as we moved from Autumn to Winter.
I'm talking about the roaring 20's analogies like this (via Refinitiv & @themarketear )
And the idea that this pent-up demand will be UNLEASHED alongside the vaccines.
I'm NOT betting against human ingenuity either.
I have no doubt that vaccine logistics will be solved, testing will become more efficient, and we will try to 'get back to normal' ASAP.
I'm NOT betting against human ingenuity either.
I have no doubt that vaccine logistics will be solved, testing will become more efficient, and we will try to 'get back to normal' ASAP.
It's the other side of the problem that concerns me.
High unemployment, the 'economic scarring', the small businesses that have depleted their savings/investment funds, the removal of stimulus/support, the concerns about high budget deficits, the focus shift to tax hikes
High unemployment, the 'economic scarring', the small businesses that have depleted their savings/investment funds, the removal of stimulus/support, the concerns about high budget deficits, the focus shift to tax hikes
It feels (I know, facts>feelings) like everything is becoming very one-sided.
As vaccine headlines broke, the impact was reduced each time.
Is the bar too high for good news to push markets higher now?
Could bad news start to take over?
As vaccine headlines broke, the impact was reduced each time.
Is the bar too high for good news to push markets higher now?
Could bad news start to take over?
I wrote about similar back in April
Peak doom and gloom but it seemed like all of the bad news was 'priced in', with nowhere else to park capital and earn a return other than stocks. https://www.macrodesiac.com/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-and-i-feel-fine/
Peak doom and gloom but it seemed like all of the bad news was 'priced in', with nowhere else to park capital and earn a return other than stocks. https://www.macrodesiac.com/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-and-i-feel-fine/
There is still nowhere else to park capital, and 'stocks' will continue to go up over the medium term (or until rates do)
But which stocks?
But which stocks?
If the underlying economy remains slow (as I expect), will we see a 're-rotation' back into tech?
Or perhaps a renewed bid for safe-havens as some of these 'certainties' are called into question?
(TL;DR - I don't want to bet against TINA, but... )
/Ends
Or perhaps a renewed bid for safe-havens as some of these 'certainties' are called into question?
(TL;DR - I don't want to bet against TINA, but... )
/Ends
