Thread by @alexanderao, A fun #mapoli thread: I have a hunch that it's impossible to [...]

A fun #mapoli thread: I have a hunch that it's impossible to draw a district Trump won this year in MA. I'm about to try and see if I'm proven right.

Trump won 159 (or 7.3%) of precincts in the state. Collectively, they cast 301,549 votes:

Trump 155,437
Biden 138,774

Turnout was 76%, so we'll assume those precincts have 400k people. The target population for a district is 727,514.

So even if you could include every Trump-won precinct you'd need precincts with roughly 327k people (~245k votes) where Biden netted fewer than 16,663 votes.

You already have all the Trump precincts, so you have to start taking in Biden ones.

The 127 precincts that Biden won most narrowly cast 246,307 votes:

Biden 125,238
Trump 115,194

Then the district as a whole is

Trump 270,631 (49.4%)
Biden 264,012 (48.2%)

This is *mathematically the best Trump district you could draw* and he only wins it by 6,619 votes! Even so, you could only draw this district if all of those Trump precincts AND the 121 most narrowly won Biden precincts happened to be contiguous. But they're not, of course.

A quick glance at the precinct map shows that to get every Trump precinct, you'd need to take in substantially bluer turf. Let's go through exactly what that turf looks like. Remember, we can't net Biden more than 6,619.

We start our quest in Western MA by picking up all of the Trump precincts colored in blue here. The next closest ones are in green.

The optimal path is through Chicopee. We have to pick up three Biden precincts that collectively voted for him 2,576-1,827 (highlighted in yellow).

Biden nets 749 votes
Trumpiest possible outcome (TPO) for the district: Trump +5,870

We pick up a bunch more Trump precincts in central MA, leaving out Palmer-1 (Trump +1.8) because it would force us to pick up Palmer-3 (Biden +11).

To pick up the 3 Trump precincts in yellow here, we have to take in Webster-1 and 2 (in green) which together voted for Biden 1,376-1,166. But these are relatively strong Trump precincts, so it'd be even harder if we DIDN'T make this trade.

Biden nets 210 votes. TPO: +5,660

We're trying to get to Bristol and Plymouth counties, where the vast majority of the Trump precincts remain.

To pick up Blackstone-2 we need to pick up Blackstone-1, which nets Biden a measly 10 votes. TPO: +5,650

Now it gets hard. The closest Trump precincts are in purple.

Whichever path we ultimately take, Bellingham-5, Wrentham-2, and Wrentham-1 (in yellow) need to be part of it.

Biden nets 542 votes.
TPO: +5,108

We can go one of two ways here: through Foxboro/Mansfield/Norton/Taunton or Plainville/N. Attleboro/Attleboro/Norton.

The most Trump-friendly way of doing the former is shown here. Those five green precincts net Biden 492 + 433 + 597 + 330 + 190 = 2,042 votes.

The most Trump-friendly way of the latter path is shown here.

It would net Biden 281 + 288 + 484 + 213 + 235 = 1,501 votes. So we'll go with it.

We can now afford to net Biden only 3,607 more votes.

We pick up virtually all of the Trump precincts in Bristol & Plymouth (a few Trump +<1 precincts are left alone, as capturing them would require picking up much bluer territory). Biden nets 49 votes because we had to pick up Taunton 4-A to get that Raynham precinct. TPO: +3,558

These are all of the Trump precincts left in the state. Most of them voted for him by a tiny margin. I can't be certain, but I don't think it'd be most efficient to pursue the ones in Lynnfield/Middleton. We'll try to pick up the Dracut/Methuen ones and go from there.

We're forced to pick up the green precincts, which break for Biden a combined 8,660-7,164.

Biden nets 1,496 votes. TPO: +2,062

By now I can tell that this isn't gonna happen. But let's at least try to get to Lynnfield before the district flips. The green precincts voted 5,638-4,484 Biden. (I realized Tewksbury-2A narrowly went for Trump while doing this.)

Biden nets 1,154 votes. TPO: +908

We fill in the Lynnfield & Peabody Trump precincts. To get to the Middleton one and the four Saugus ones, we need to pick up two Biden precincts that went for him 2,562-2,365.

Biden nets 197 votes. TPO: +711

It's now just a matter of trying to add as many precincts as we can to the district without flipping it. Back in Central MA, we add Athol-1, netting Biden 46 votes, to reach Athol-2 (Trump +4). TPO: +665

This is the best I could come up with. We add the green precincts, which voted as follows:

Biden 19,083
Trump 18,410

Biden nets 673 votes, which means it's now mathematically impossible for Trump to win our district.

Here's our attempt, in all its glory. At 625,938, it's *still* around 100k people short of having the requisite population, and there are no Trump precincts left. This (incomplete) district is 93% white & would have voted for Trump 55.4-44.6 in 2016 and Romney 51.8-48.2 in 2012.

Also note that this district, while legal by itself, would never be part of a legal map, because it would preclude other districts from being contiguous. So in reality, the Trumpiest district you could draw *that could be part of a legal map* would be even bluer.

I have no choice but to conclude that you simply cannot draw a Massachusetts congressional district that Trump carried in 2020. That's an incredible fact on several levels.

Hope you enjoyed this exercise! I certainly had fun doing it.

#mapoli #ElectionTwitter

The precinct map is from @hjessy_; it looks like I accidentally copied and pasted the link to the photo rather than his tweet, so giving credit where credit is due.

Latest Threads Unrolled: