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In my experience, lots of people don’t vote FvD because they’re antisemitic or pro-fascist or want an end to democracy. They do so because:
a) they think Muslim immigrants are changing/coarsening their communities
(b)they don’t like liberal establishment figures like Rutte
(c)Wilders seems a bit nasty
(d)Baudet shares their views on immigration but behaves in a way which seems to them more fitting for a potential PM
(b)they don’t like liberal establishment figures like Rutte
(c)Wilders seems a bit nasty
(d)Baudet shares their views on immigration but behaves in a way which seems to them more fitting for a potential PM
Given this, I suspect (whatever the breakaway factions end up being called) Baudet without the FvD may do much better than an FvD without Baudet. People don’t buy concert tickets to see the backing dancers.
It’s inevitable that other parties will try to pick up the pieces - not a coincidence that the VVD has been banging on about immigration this week. But the FvD still has only two seats in parliament, and might win five or six in a good year.
If Rutte keeps trying to combat (b) by pandering to (a), he risks repeating the David Cameron Catastrophe: running so scared of an extremist flank that you wreck your own party. Feeding a tiger doesn’t always calm it - and it might end up eating you.
(Some further context here, if you’re interested) https://twitter.com/bencoates1/status/1332343201496182786
