How can Trump be 13:1 on betfair down from 35:1 just recently? 11.7% on trumpfeb on ftx? What is going on?

There are a few reasons, but one of them is really depressing me: that we no longer have a shared reality with a tangible percentage of our friends/family.

So the obvious reason why the odds are the way they are is that there are more people willing to take 14:1 on Trump than people willing to lay 14:1 to others. It's a combination of Biden bettors having bet at better odds previously, some of them now hedging at very long odds..

..., and some not wanting to lock up money for a small reward when they can park it in a vehicle like BTC during a bull market. And then there are the truthers who are willing to bet getting what they think is an attractive price.

I don't think people realize how pervasive QAnon is to some of the more diehard Trumpers on our timelines. The ones in your comments that seem so sure there was massive amounts of fraud. The ones who seem to say things that seem totally out of left field for the rest of us.

I don't know the full history of qanon, but basically if you see an account with something like "savethechildren", "saveourchildren", "where we go one we go all" or "wwg1wga" in their profiles, they're part of QAnon, and they're spreading lies (that they prob believe) to others.

Go ahead and check for yourself. Every single person I've seen that seems confident about things that seem insane to me has been influenced by this. Every time I tweet and receive some form of backlash, it's from an account that has either first or second order QAnon on their TL.

Example: Jeff Madsen. Check out some of the accounts he has followed recently. And it's not just him. Some of our friends have heavy influence on their feeds, some light, and those of us who have none of it at all are mystified why they believe things so strongly.

I went through the feed of someone I booked action with 3 weeks after the election was over and saw heavy QAnon influence. It made me feel dejected. Imagine if I approached this person and said "I feel awful, the election is over, I can't accept these bets, you're drawing dead"

This person would probably think I'm trying to slime my way out of the bet and wouldn't want to cancel. There's no way for me to communicate with this person as we no longer share the same reality. It's like some of our friends are now zombies that are lost to us forever.

I don't really know how to feel about this or how we can fix it. For many of our friends it's just a subtle, gentle tug on their worldview. Others are fully immersed. How can we have conversations or change minds when we don't have the same facts or live in the same universe?

The election is over. Trump lost. He can't win. 100% over no shot. This is actual reality. If you don't agree, look at your timeline, and look at the timelines of the people you follow. You might not even know what is influencing you until you're part of the cult.