There are a lot of misconceptions about what the Canadian Energy Regulator said in their Energy Futures Report

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/2020/canada-energy-futures-2020.pdf

In particular activists have been misrepresenting what the Regulator says about the viability of the #TransMountain #bcpoli #cdnpoli #StopTMX

What the regulator does say is that under the Reference Scenario all the new pipelines will be needed, which given Pres-elect Biden's promise to cancel KXL, will be an issue. But we will leave that scenario for another night #bcpoli @sjmuir @nbennett_biv @garymasonglobe

It has been widely claimed by the activist community that under the Evolving Scenario the TMX will become a white elephant and will lose money.

This is simply not consistent with the data as we know it. @TransMtn @JustinTrudeau

Under the Evolving Scenario (absent any new pipeline completions) all the existing transportation capacity will need to be maxed out all the time and it still won't be enough for existing capacity. There will be serious shortfalls

Any drop in capacity on any existing pipeline or any issue with oil-by-rail will result in curtailment in a market where Alberta's production will be needed (see my previous posts about shortages in the world market for heavy oil)

In order to even move existing capacity under the Evolving Scenario either Line 3 or TMX need to be completed just to try and reduce the massive volume that will have to be shipped by rail. Rail which we know is more dangerous and generates more GHGs per barrel to move. #cdnpoli

Now imagine that both Line 3 and #TMX are built, what does that mean? It means that the country has a small amount of wiggle-room. An issue with a pump or a governor in Michigan won't result in a need for massive curtailment or a serious drop in price to move existing production

Now imagine, that Alberta reduces its production. By looking at which markets are served by which pipelines we can establish who will lose their market share first. This is where the activists get it wrong because apparently they do not understand the world heavy oil market.

As I describe in this piece, the world market is suffering from issues in the supply of heavy oil and the West Coast is severely short on transportation capacity for both heavy and light oil. https://achemistinlangley.net/2020/09/22/understanding-future-demand-for-heavy-oil-why-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion-project-is-a-good-bet-for-canada/ #TransMountain #StopTMX #bcpoli #cdnpoli #canpoli

Let's look at the current pipeline network. Where do all the existing pipelines go? Well except for Line 9 (east) and the TMX (west) all the rest go south to the US. So given a lack of supply which direction would be most likely to be curtailed? Why south of course #TMX

What does this mean for the Trans Mountain? Well it leave the pipeline as the only player in the game going west. California, Washington, India, Asia...all can be served by the #TMX and can't be served effectively by any of the other options (except oil-by-rail over the Rockies)

So will the #TMX sit empty if the total carrying capacity out of Alberta slightly exceeds Alberta's production? Absolutely not. Meanwhile as @RichardDaniel26 puts it a little extra transportation capacity is always better than too little transport capacity https://twitter.com/RichardDaniel26/status/1331345401291493377?s=20