In a spirit of generosity I've tried understanding what might lay behind the allocation of areas to tiers (thread)

It's possible that the inclusion of differently affected localities in a single-tier county is intended to protect those in low-Covid areas from those in nearby neighbourhoods where it's much more prevalent. 'Pubs shut in your town? Drive 20mins into the countryside...'

Also possible that some decisions weren't made 'on the evidence' but rather 'on the fear' (that the virus will spread more readily, become more likely to hospitalise or kill) as temperatures fall - 'flu peaks in February

And it may be that Government wants to drive the virus back as far as possible before we tear the pants out of it over Christmas/New Year, anticipating that revelry, family get-togethers etc will promote infection

If any of the foregoing, or other legitimate justifications are what's behind the decisions, Government should level with us. As things stand, what's proposed looks irrational

And when public confidence is lost, people will do as they wish. Which could result in everything that Government is trying to prevent, and worse

Even if that's done, it doesn't address the many obvious shortcomings in the response to the virus (biggest being lack of compliance), flaws in the data, and misrepresentations and misleading conclusions

But honesty might buy enough public goodwill to get through the winter without the virus getting out of control so the vaccines can be rolled out without too many people dying unnecessarily. I say this as an evidence-driven pragmatist, not as some Great Barrington fundie