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I had a long chat with @politico writer @zackstanton about where we are with COVID, what we can expect might be coming, and how we got here, plus what we epidemiologists need to be doing better. Read it here
Are Your Choices Making the Pandemic Worse? https://politi.co/2JahcTJ
Are Your Choices Making the Pandemic Worse? https://politi.co/2JahcTJ
We’ve learned a lot about this particular virus and how to treat it, but the public health tools for controlling a pandemic are still basically what they’ve been for hundreds of years:
Keep infectious people away from susceptible people until there’s no more risk of infection.
Keep infectious people away from susceptible people until there’s no more risk of infection.
That strategy has worked for centuries and it’s worked for COVID in many countries already too.
We have the tools, we just need to buckle down and commit to implementing them on a national level, in a coordinated fashion.
We have the tools, we just need to buckle down and commit to implementing them on a national level, in a coordinated fashion.
In years past, these public health strategies have sometimes required some people to make much bigger sacrifices than others, but we are getting better at treating COVID and we have several effective vaccines on the horizon.
Story time: roughly 400 years ago, the plague was sweeping through Europe. No one knew how it spread — they didn’t even know what bacteria was, and they certainly didn’t know this one could be carried by fleas.
The plague spread northward through England up from London, following trade routes and following rich people who fled to the countryside, until one day in late summer, the plague arrived in a sleepy village called Eyam, hiding in a shipment of cloth.
As villagers sickened and died, the local religious leaders came up with a plan. Although they couldn’t stop the spread of plague within the village, they did believe they could stop the spread of plague to other villages.
They would isolate their whole village to protect others
They would isolate their whole village to protect others
Their sacrifice worked. Hundreds in Eyam died, but the plague never spread any farther north.
By quarantining the town, they ensured people they knew were susceptible (their neighbors) didn’t come in contact with people who might be infectious (the villagers).
By quarantining the town, they ensured people they knew were susceptible (their neighbors) didn’t come in contact with people who might be infectious (the villagers).
They didn’t know how infection spread or even what infection really was, but they still knew that the basic goal of outbreak control was to keep potentially infectious and probably susceptible people apart.
The sacrifices of these villagers is still recognized today with plaques beside cottage doors naming those who died, and a museum reconstructing the timeline.
And the village of Eyam is still inhabited, many of the villagers descendants of those who survived the plague.
There are lessons here for us and how we can control COVID. One lessons is about the importance of quarantine.
There are lessons here for us and how we can control COVID. One lessons is about the importance of quarantine.
But another is a warning—in order to protect their neighbors, Eyam’s leaders chose what amounts to a “natural herd immunity” strategy for their own community, and as many as 75% of Eyam villagers died of plague that long plague year.
Today, we know how infections work. We know what does and doesn’t spread COVID, we have tests to help us know who’s infectious, we have treatments that can improve survival, and we’ll soon have vaccines to give extra protection to the susceptible.
We can control COVID by keeping susceptible people away from possibly infectious people, but we don’t have to resign ourselves to allowing infection to spread unchecked among lower risk groups to do so.
We can protect everyone, if we have the willpower & leadership.
We can protect everyone, if we have the willpower & leadership.
Unlike the villagers of Eyam, you aren’t being asked to risk the plague. But you are being asked to skip Thanksgiving gatherings. Please choose wisely today.
#StayHome
#StaySafe 
#StayHomeForThanksgiving https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/unsure-how-to-celebrate-the-holidays-in-a-pandemic/
#StayHome
#StaySafe #StayHomeForThanksgiving https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/unsure-how-to-celebrate-the-holidays-in-a-pandemic/
