The idea that forcing new homes today to go all-electric is the easiest and cheapest path to low-carbon buildings assumes an array of facts not submitted into evidence. Let's look at some considerations needed to make that determination. /1

/2 Cheaper for the consumer? You need to look at upfront costs (appliance purchase & installation, construction) and the energy costs to run the equipment. Remember, the unit costs of natural gas are a fraction (1/3rd to 1/4th) of electricity.

/3 Forcing all-electric does not ensure efficient electric equipment. The low-cost electric water heater most people will install isn't very efficient.

4/ How about infrastructure costs? Heating can create "peaky" energy system requirements. Therefore, what are the generation, transmission, and distribution requirements to meet peak winter load? Do those costs go up or down if we assume higher shares of variable renewables?

/5 Is to cheaper or easier for "society?" Answer depends on how wide we cast our net. Here we might examine environmental externalities, energy optionality, energy reliability and resilience, knock-on economic effects (of, say, higher energy costs, new jobs versus replacement)...

/6 What do *people* think? We can't discount public opinion. Imagine saving up to build your dream home only to be told you can't have the kitchen you want.

/7 How about equity? If one city decides to force consumers to go all-electric, what happens to energy rates for consumers in other cities? These costs, and particularly distributional concerns, are paramount.

/8 Let's say instead we incentivize efficient building shells, advanced gas equipment, and low-carbon gas supplied. Is that a cheaper and easier path than forced electrification? Has that option been sufficiently examined?

/9 And of course, does forced electrification actually reduce greenhouse gases? The answer will depend on assumptions of the future, configuration of the electric grid, timing, and other issues. But it's a critical question! And the answer isn't always going to be "yes."

10/ These considerations on forced electrification policies are going to vary by geography, state, city, even within a city. Local considerations matter.

/11 To conclude, analysis to date on questions of gas bans or forced electrification has been generally shallow or limited to a prescribed set of assumptions. So instead let's ask these and other questions and think critically about the implications and tradeoffs. /End