Here's a big piece for @renew_economy about Australia's upcoming emissions projections. It's set to badly miss even the weak, insufficient Paris targets, but there's going to be a *flurry* of headlines saying it'll hit them.

Let me explain...... https://reneweconomy.com.au/morrisons-infuriating-climate-pledge-well-only-cheat-if-we-need-to-70586/

Between 2018 and 2019, the Australian government's projections went through a *massive* shift on the predictions for fossil fuels and renewables - a shift that's been going on for half a decade, buried in the underlying data of their reports:

https://ketanjoshi.co/2019/12/07/bad-news-amidst-the-burning-australia-wont-hit-its-paris-climate-targets/

As a consequence *mostly* of this growth in renewables and subsequent downgrade of fossil fuel fortunes, the projections have been creeping closer to Paris 2030: but not close enough. Solution? Shade in the gap with a made-up cheat - "carry over"

https://ketanjoshi.co/2019/12/07/bad-news-amidst-the-burning-australia-wont-hit-its-paris-climate-targets/

The coverage of that report was truly atrocious. The deception that Aus was on track to hit its Paris targets was widespread and unstoppable, no matter how hard we wonks tried.

Since then, the gov't hasn't announced a single new policy that could have *any* impact. The 2019 renewable predictions were weak - but shifting to strong predictions still wouldn't be enough. So....how will the gap be filled?

https://reneweconomy.com.au/morrisons-infuriating-climate-pledge-well-only-cheat-if-we-need-to-70586/

My bet: probably a couple of new industrial / tech focused policies (nothing on transport), some more brazen assumptions about land-use, and upgraded RE predictions will get them there.

Except: the Paris targets are insufficient. We need to aim for 1.5C

https://reneweconomy.com.au/morrisons-infuriating-climate-pledge-well-only-cheat-if-we-need-to-

In fact, @climateactiontr's latest report on Aus details, nicely, exactly what changes need to happen to get there. Some curves are steep: but when you enact these changes as a transformational, job-creating, justice-driven change, they're *desirable*

https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/scalingupaustralia/

Piece coming soon going right down into the dirty (and really, very wild) details, but, well. Yeah. My predictions came true. The projections show Australia will miss even its weak, 2015-era targets, and the headlines said the exact opposite.