THREAD: Why publishers have to pay 'moneyball' to beat The New York Times.

So over the past year or so, Vox Media lost several of its biggest personalities: Ezra Klein, Kara Swisher, Andrew Sullivan, Casey Newton, Matt Yglesias

Two went to NYT. The others to Substack. There's a dynamic developing that's going to make it harder for smaller publishers to keep their star talent.

The solution? Moneyball

If you'll recall the plot of the movie/book Moneyball, it rested on the concept that smaller ball teams will always lose their star players to much bigger, well-financed teams that could lure them away with more money.

The brilliance of Billy Bean is that he stopped playing the game the way that it was always played. Instead of trying to pay a gargantuan amount for a star player, he'd "reconstruct" that player by hiring several less expensive players who, in aggregate, equaled a star player

Now consider an Ezra Klein. He's a great writer and thinker. He's got a huge brand. His social media following is enormous. When he puts out a new opinion piece, lots of other influencers feel obligated to share and debate it.

Now Ezra Klein probably costs a Vox Media a lot of money in terms of salary and other benefits. And a NYT will always be able to pay him more money.

So the question is: do you try to hire another Ezra Klein, or do you "reconstruct" him by hiring several writers?

In order for the "Moneyball" analogy to really work, a publisher would need to develop a formula for the hiring practice. How many social media subscribers does the applicant have? Newsletter subscribers? How many times has their work been cited online in the last year?

Of course, I don't think salary alone will keep the stars once they've reached a certain level of fame. You need to create more aggressive retention practices.

Let's say a Casey Newton comes to you and says, "Hey, I want to leave to start a paid newsletter?"

Your response: "Great! How about you start it here? We'll continue paying your salary and then give you half the revenue for every paid subscriber you convert."

So under this new dynamic, you're able to find and hire up-and-coming writers while they're still affordable. And then as you help them grow their following, you incentivize them to stay once they've reached their maximum value by allowing them to share in their success.

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