The next few months are going to be catastrophic in terms of deaths and viral spread. Even if you don't understand the data, you can see what is coming just by looking at my family alone and how they have handled Covid times.

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I come from a very big family of very educated people. Several of my cousins are doctors & nurses. One is even a freaking MD-PhD who WORKS ON CORONAVIRUS. My family is Irish Catholic, so mostly conservative. Lots of pro-lifers and lifelong GOP peeps. We are white & privileged.

So, even if my aunts, uncles, and cousins don't understand (or believe) the Covid data, they have access to medical peeps in the family they trust who can explain what is happening. Big Bad Media might be lying, but you'd think they'd trust their own medically trained family.

However, for many of them, family is the greatest thing for them, which means they happily risk their own health if it means keeping up Sunday family gatherings and big weddings. They still don't get that the risk isn't just theirs to take; they can be unsymptomatic carriers.

Many of the invites we get from family explain that masks and social distancing will be happening, but after each event the pictures on Facebook tell another story. We are big huggers. And big drinkers. You have to hug and kiss all your aunties first thing. It is family law.

Despite best intentions, these gatherings, although heartfelt and well-meaning, are dangerous. Masks don't stay on. My family swears they are being careful, but their timelines are filled with pics of eating in restaurants with friends and attending wedding showers.

Some are staying in a bubble, but their bubbles do not overlap by more than one person. Take, for instance, one of my aunts who is still having big post-church Sunday dinners with her five kids and their spouses and kids. Each sibling has their own bubble of 4 other families.

Each family also has at least one person who works outside of the home and one kid in a face to face school. When they come together each week, they are converging hundreds of contact points together at the table. They aren't as safe as they think they are.

Then we have the family weddings. My second cousin just got married in a county specifically chosen because there is no mask mandate. They did, however, limit the guest list to 50 people. The day after the wedding, the bride tested Covid positive. 11 of the 50 caught C19 there.

My family usually have weddings that exceed more than 250 people. My mom is one of 10 kids, and most of my aunts had 5 to 8 kids each, and my cousins are following the pattern. I am one of 56 first cousins on this side of the family. We are almost all married now, most with kids.

Last year pre-Covid, one of my cousins put down $$$ for a hall rental for 300 people for her reception that is happening next week. She didn't cancel the reception as she would lose all the $$$. It is in a state & county without any restrictions on gathering sizes or masks.

My parents, a retired dentist and dental hygienist, quickly declined the invitation, as did I and my siblings. However, word has it that a lot of my family is going. Masks will be worn...part of the time. To them, one day of risk is worth showing my cousin how much they her.

Asking people to self-isolate and stay home is to ask them to override our most basic wiring. We are hard wired as social animals. As a species we hand with family groups in larger communities. The communal wiring is how we survived as a species, feasted on mammoth, & thrived.

For most humans (hermits aside), we need a certain amount of social interaction and physical touch to be happy. There is a reason why we kiss, hug, and hold hands. Our brain shoots off happy endorphins that keeps our bond with loved ones strong and our brains healthy.

We literally aren't wired to stay alone for this long. We go crazy. We get depressed. We get bored.. We feel lonely and sad. Our species has developed social interactions that get us out of these ruts. Need a boost? Call a friend & meet at a bar or go home to visit grandma.

We are asking people not only to go against their social instincts, but we are also telling people not to go do the things that would make them feel better from the negative effects of the self-isolation. It is *really* hard.

So we rationalize our way around it.

We tell ourselves only the old and really sick are dying, not someone like me. We look at an unconscionable number of deaths as *only* being a couple out of ever 200k. We do performative cleaning. We set good intentions for mask wearing and distancing. We reprioritize constantly.

It is one of the reasons why we *need* leadership in a time of pandemic crisis. We need someone to lay down mandates and laws, with real consequences, that force us to make the decisions we individually suck at making ourselves. It is one of the functions of government.

Think about how many laws we follow to keep ourselves and others safe. We wear seashells. We have speed limits. We outlaw murder, assault, & theft. Are we great as a society at always following the rules or enforcing them? No. But without them, the outcome would be unfathomable.

My point is that humans, when left to their own devices, aren't always going to do the right thing. Hell, if we have seen anything from the last four years, we have seen a lot of people not only okay with not doing the right thing but actually reveling in it.

As Martin Luther King, Jr. said, "The law cannot change the heart, but it can restrain the heartless." It is clear that there are many Americans who do not give a rat's ass about endangering, or even causing the death of, others, so actions must be taken to limit the damage.

Without any guidance on the federal level, (and also on the state, county, and city level for many), we will see an incredible amount of death in the coming weeks and months. You and I are not prepared for what we are about to see. None of us have witnessed death on this scale.

The worst will be the preventable deaths of those who did follow all safety measures and need a hospital bed for something unrelated like a heart attack or emergency surgery. Hospitals are all first come, first served. Some of the people who are staying safe will also die now.

So I beg of you, do whatever you can to override your social instincts and hardwired desire to see friends and family this holiday season. Fight it tooth and nail and stay home. You aren't just risking your own health now. With hospitals full, you are risking innocent people.

My parents, my siblings, and I, along with a handful of my cousins and aunts, are doing our best to convince our other family members to stay put. But we are exhausted. And we aren't very successful. It is a decision that ultimately each person has to make for themselves.

Ideally, a caring, science-informed government, however, would make the hard decision for them. They are all very into following the law (for the most part) even though they aren't into following the science.

I am now mentally preparing myself for the phone calls in the coming weeks about my aunts, uncles, and cousins who will be hospitalized from getting Covid at this big wedding. Given our numbers, I expect some funeral announcements too. I am heartsick with worry. I love them all.

Please, for the love of God, STAY THE FUCK AT HOME this year. You are giving up one holiday season so you can be together for a lifetime of holiday seasons to come. YOU CAN DO THIS.

Stay safe out there. You are worth protecting.

Autocorrect Edit: We wear seatbelts, not seashells! Unless you are a mermaid. Then I trust you are staying underwater and away from this hot mess.

BTW: The vaccines coming out right now look very promising! Stay strong until we all can get a vaccine! https://twitter.com/Literature_Lady/status/1325973514499874818?s=19

Footnote: I recognize staying home comes at great personal cost. My brother is having his 1st child soon, and my parents have agreed not to visit the baby until we have a vaccine. It will be heartbreaking, but they want to keep them safe. It takes courage to do the right thing.

For those of you staying home, thank you for your strength & courage. I see you doing the right thing, I recognize your struggle & sacrifice, & I am grateful for your bravery. You are a hero. This time of loss will end one day. Stay safe & strong until then.

Soilidarity.

Update: My cousin canceled the big wedding reception at the last second. Both he and the bride tested positive Covid that week.